Examination of Affecting Factors on Iran's Human Development Index Using Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Nowadays, human development play a key role in Development studies. The man is the main pillar of sustainable Development. Human Development Index has been the most popular indicator of development. Knowing the variables involved in the estimation of human development index is essential in choosing the appropriate model that can accurately measure the human development index. In this paper, we consider the uncertainty modeling framework for study of the factors that affect the human development index. For this purpose, we use the Bayesian model averaging which is appropriate with the assumption of model uncertainty.In this study, by estimating 960000 regression equations, five variables are identified as non-fragile variables which is mentioned as follows: Growth of oil revenues, growth of Government health expenditure, Growth of primary education, Inflation, capital stock. Other variables lost their effect in the presence of non--fragile variables. Therefore, it can be concluded that in order to raise the index of human development in the country, it is necessary to pay more attention to the mentioned variables