Study the effect of savings rates on trade balance in Iranian economics, Application of fuzzy regression approach and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag

The trade balance is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and the macroeconomic strategic constraints for developing countries. The main target of this paper is study the effect of savings rate on the trade balance. According the article target we used time series data of Iranian macroeconomic variables during 1960-2015 with Application of fuzzy regression approach and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. The results of Fuzzy regression approach shows that savings rate and GDP per capita has a positive effect on the trade balance in the short term and long term. In the other hand the real effective exchange rate Degree of trade openness has a negative effect on the trade balance in long term. Also The results of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag approach shows that savings rate, trade openness and GDP per capita has a positive effect on the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance. The other results improve that: error correction coefficient shows that 93 present of unbalanced short term adjusted to achieving long term balance. According to the results of research to reduce the trade deficit, an increase in gross domestic savings can be one of the important policy recommendations.