Evaluating of Volume Change in the Intercity Roads after a Powerful Earthquake (Case Study Kermanshah Province)

In terms of transportation, two main reasons for a crisis can be considered: a sudden drop in supply and an increase or a sudden change in demand. The sudden drop in supply occurs when the normal capacity of the network suddenly decreases due to natural or abusive factors. Increases or sudden changes in demand include changing demand for trips in general (total network demand), or part (part of the network demand), or changing demand (such as business trips, recreational activities, relief and emergency evacuation). Various approaches have been proposed in the literature to investigate the issue, in some of which they have investigated the effect of changes in supply and demand. In this paper, for evaluating crisis effect on intercity road, and changing travel patterns, the volume changes in the intercity roads of Kermanshah province have been evaluated. The results show that after the earthquake, the produced / attracted volume of the east of province has decreased. The earthquake-affected cities include the Salas-e Babaajani, Sarpol-e-Zahab and Qasr-e-Shirin which have increased up to 100% in comparing to volumes on a normal day. Key words: Crisis, Post- Crisis Situation, Demand Change, Intercity Roads, Kermanshah.