Study of Poverty Indicators in the Urban Areas of Hormozgan Province Using Linear Expenditure System (LES) during 4th and 5th Development Plans: Household Budjet Survey

Poverty is a dynamic phenomenon that has existed at all times and historical times and has always been a matter for policy makers. Truths show that poverty is a social, economic, cultural, and political issue which, despite the various programs and annual budgets for its elimination, still it remains as one of the key challenges. World Bank›s poverty reduction strategies in 1999 show that countries want to combat poverty and eradicate it, and many researchers have emphasized on the importance of studying it. But over the years, after introducing the concept of poverty reduction strategy and its evaluation by quantitative indicators, the results of this global strategy and the researchers› concern are still in the spotlight. Since according to unofficial reports, the status of Hormozgan province as the pole and gate of the country›s trade is poor in terms of poverty in comparison to other provinces, poverty in this province, Hormozgan needs to be considered more seriously. This research is a scientific step in understanding the current status of poverty and its indicators during the fourth and fifth development plans.
In this study, the poverty line and poverty indicators of the urban areas of Hormozgan province are estimated using the Linear Expenditures System and the seemingly unrelated regression model during the fourth and fifth development plans. To estimate this, the consumer price index data of the Iranian Statistics center and household budget survey based on eight commodity groups (including food and beverage and tobacco, clothing and footwear, housing and fuel, household appliances and services, health care, transportation and communications, recreation and education and other goods and services) were applied.
Findings: The poverty line for a four-person household in 2006 was 30558000 Rials, which is equal to 75289000 Rials in 2016. The average annual growth rate of the poverty line during the reviewed period was 11%. During this period, the largest share of the expenditure was from the income of the housing and fuel commodity group and the smallest share was from the goods and different services group . The average ratio of the head count during this period was 16. 9%. The highest level of this index was 29% in 2008, which means that 29% of the households of Hormozgan province this year were below the poverty line. The survey of the poverty gap index also shows that this index has reached its lowest level at the end of the fifth development period, indicating a reduction in the necessary income to bring the poor income to the poverty line level during the period under review. The lower the index, the lower the intensity and depth of poverty. The highest figure for this year was 13 percent, which was 37 percent. The average of this index was 22. 2% during the survey period.
The results show that the implementation of five-year development plans in the study period, although has improves the welfare status of poor people, it has increased the number of people who went under the poverty line during the same period. Also, the most obvious point about the poverty line is its increasing trend over two development programs. One of the main reasons for this increase is the decline in household purchasing power due to rising inflation rates. Therefore, it is suggested that, in order to be able to deploy poverty policies desirably, in the first step, inflation should be controlled in order to establish social justice and fair distribution of income in the country and province.