Economic valuation of tourism parks based on Bayesian updating their willingness to pay in the uncertain condition of two- dimensional binary choice (Case Study: Baba Aman tourism Park)

Calculation of per capita and integrated economic value of natural resources is a suitable solution for the economic evaluation of tourism resources during a specified period and with a certain number of users. In this case, the possibility of transferring source to exploit natural resources (subject to remain the principle source of tourism) will be available. In this study, by using Bayesian updating in willingness to pay (WTP) pattern in Contingent Valuation Model (CVM) with Double-Bounded Dichotomous-Choice Contingent (DB-DC), per capita economic value of exploitation, in the situation that the respondents' willingness to pay for non-market goods are naturally experiencing uncertainty, have calculated. This method is used in a case study to evaluate the exploitation of Baba Aman of Bojnoord resort. Base on the results, non-Bayesian and Bayesian willingness to pay are 23140 IRR and 37421 IRR respectively. According to that approximate value of yearly exploitation from Baba Aman resort is 31104335200 IRR in Bayesian model and 19233968000 IRR in non-Bayesian model. According to these results and due to the one step nature and lack of Bayesian updating in non-Bayesian methods, non-Bayesian results have underestimation Bias and there is the risk underestimation in valuation of tourism resources in conventional approaches. So this Bayesian model is recommended to calculate more appropriate and more accurate value of the exploitation of tourism resources.