An Analysis of the Spatial Changes of Urban Environment in Mashhad Metropolis Using the Natural Step Future Study Approach

Since the main theme of any geographical analysis is the emphasis on space and its environmental concepts, any change in the relationship between humans and the urban environment can be considered as the final product of the human desire to change their settlement areas to overcome the environmental and spatial nature of the city. In this context, spatial change in the urban environment can be considered as a socio-economic, environmental, political and spatial policy function that in different periods of time, according to its various conditions, have had different impacts on the urban space and it will provide the concepts of space and urban environment with fundamental changes. On this basis, paying attention to the urban environment challenges and trying to solve them are of essential importance. The Natural Step has pioneered a "Back casting from Principles" approach which means to advance society towards greater sustainability (Whole-systems thinking and back casting from sustainability principles form the basis for numerous applications and tools to plan and redesign organizational strategy, organizational processes, product/service innovation, and business models). Therefore, the most important research aims will be as follows:Identification of the most important variables affecting the urban environment in Saqqez city through strategic studies.
Developing the most important environmental scenarios in Saqqez City to achieve sustainability.
Understanding the most important environmental key forces of Saqqez city. The results showed that the obtained fill rate is equal to 95.79% with two data iteration which represents the high level of variables influencing each other. Also, having relied on the findings, integrated urban environmental management index (ME4) with 188 scores had the most direct impact on other variables and the development and promotion of urban recycling regulations index with 5,585,944 rows calculated values had the most indirect impact on other variables. Finally, the research scenarios were presented in the frame of three main scenarios and 21 predicted situations about Mashhad metropolis environmental challenges using TNS approach.