Curve Number Estimation Based on the Leaf Area Index (A Case Study: Kareh-BasBasin)

Curve number (CN) is a hydrologic parameter used to predict the direct runoff depth or the excessive rainfall that infiltrates into the soil. This parameter, which indicates surface water retention, is very important in the processes relating to flooding. Vegetation of the region is a major factor affecting peak flow and flood volume. The peak flow is highly influenced by the land surface characteristics, for example at the time that vegetation coverage is naturally low or while vegetated areas are decreasing, the peak discharges increase as well. In this study, the flood hydrograph of Kareh-Bas Basin was simulated using the HEC-HMS model. The simulation was used to estimate the values of the annual curve number in the basin of interest. Model data requirements for this study were temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration and discharge time series. The model was calibrated for the period 2000-2010. Then, the model was implemented independently for simulating of rainfall-runoff for each year without any change in the optimized parameters. The model was calibrated only by changing curve number. The average curve number of the basin for each year was computed using the weighted mean method. The MODIS leaf area index raster maps were downloaded from the Modis site. The maps were converted into ASCII format for spatial statistics and calculating the monthly spatial average. The correlation between the curve number and leaf area index was investigated by a nonlinear curve fitting. This lead to the development of a curve number as a function of the vegetation cover for each year. Finally, the accuracy of the developed relationship was investigated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient by comparing the curve number obtained from the HEC-HMS model and the simulated values from the new relationship. The obtained Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0.58 showed that the HEC-HMS model was capable to simulate the flood hydrograph with relatively good accuracy. The sub-basin spatial mean showed that the sub-basins 1 and 2 take the highest curve number values. This indicates that surface water retention in these sub-basins is less than the other sub-basins, which may lead to a sharper hydrological response or flood. In sub-basins 3 and 4, where vegetation density is higher thus land use acts as a predominant factor in hydrologicalbehavior of these sub-basins, the curve number was lower. The study shows the hydrological response depends on the temporal variation of the land cover, for instance in 2010, when the leaf area index increased by a factor of 1.4, the curve number has decreased to 47. As it is predictable with decreasing vegetation the peak discharge and flood volume was increasing. We found a direct nonlinear relationship between basin scale Leaf Area Index and Curve Number with a correlation coefficient of 0.7, indicating that the variation of the curve number is a function of the leaf area index. The developed model allows calculating curve number values based on the remotely sensed leaf area index. This relationship can be used as an auxiliary function for capturing the vegetation changes and dynamics. The accuracy of the derived equation was evaluated in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe's efficiency coefficient. A value of Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0.72 showed that this relationship is good enough for calculating basin or sub-basin curve number values capturing the dynamics of leaf area index. The obtained Nash-Sutcliff efficiency coefficient from HEC-HMS showed that the model was able to simulate the flood hydrograph of Kareh-bas basin with relatively good accuracy. However, the visual interpretation shows there is a weakness in the simulation of the falling limb of the simulated hydrographs. This may be an indication that the drainage of stored water at the basin was not well-simulated by the model. In general, it can be said that peak discharge and flood volume were under-estimated. By increasing the curve number, the peak discharge values also were increasing. The pair data for spatially weighted values for curve number and averaged annual leaf area index showed that an increase in leaf area index leads to a lower value in obtained curve number. This may result in lower peak discharge and volume of the flood. Such relationships may be taken as a measure for flood control. Meanwhile remotely sensed leaf area index products may be considered as an opportunity to capture the dynamics of the land cover.