Wheat Self-Sufficiency and Population Growth in Iran's 1404 Perspective (Investigating the Role of the Guaranteed Purchase Policy)

In the current situation, the orientation of the Islamic Republic of Iran's economic and social programs is towards encouraging the growth of the population. As the population grows, the need for wheat products in the country will increase, and issues such as reducing water resources will make the production of these products in the country face significant challenges. In addition, the country has always been exposed to political and economic threats because of being in a sensitive position in the Middle East. So far, many plans have been put in place to reduce the dependence on wheat imports and increase the level of self-sufficiency in producing this strategic product in the country. Thus, in this study, by designing a dynamic partial equilibrium model, the status of wheat self-sufficiency and population growth in the 1404 perspective of Iran and the effectiveness of guaranteed purchasing policy in this field were investigated. The results showed that in the horizon of 1404, whenever the guaranteed purchase price of wheat is equal to annual inflation, despite the increase in the population of the country, the self-sufficiency index of wheat production will decrease in fluctuations, in addition to the increase. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable self-sufficiency and reduce the dependence on imports of this product, it was suggested that the annual increase in the guaranteed purchase price of wheat would necessarily be proportional to the increase in inflation and also according to changes in the price of barley product.