Future Studies on Demographic Structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the Security Perspective to the Horizon of 1430

The present study, illustrates the likely future, with the aim of explaining the future of demographic structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the perspective of security defenses on the horizon of 1430.

This research was carried out qualitatively. Among the existing methods in qualitative research, the method of scenario analysis was used. Considering the type of research with 20 experts in the subject, scientific assemblies and universities active in this field were used by conducting expert panels and thought-provoking sessions in theoretical saturation.

Demographic trends indicate that the Islamic Republic of Iran with the lowest fertility rate will experience negative growth in 1430 horizons and will be recognized as the sixth oldest country in the world. Also, urban development trends, rural-urban migration and small towns to big cities, heterogeneous population density, center-fringe gap, increasing marriage age and divorce,etc are security implications in various economic, social, political, military, and environmental areas. Therefore, based on the uncertainties that have been counted, there are four believable futures for 1430 horizon.

Since the population is one of the fundamental components in the formation and quality of the defense-security structure of the country, the changes in the population cause the transformation of the security-defense structure. Therefore, this could put the country's defense and security in jeopardy. Some suggested solutions include: active aging policy, marriage award policy instead of birth award, establishment of a specialized comprehensive population management organization, and prioritizing the national security intelligence project (National Surveillance System) and reforming Recruitment Policies in the Armed Forces.