Investigating the impacts of water transfer to Choghakhor dam on resource allocation using system dynamics approach

In this study allocation of water resources Choghakhor dam after the operation of the water transfer project Sabzkouh to Choghakhor using system dynamics approach is discussed. For this purpose, the inputs discharg to the reservoir and evaporation rates using SARIMA model to forecast for period 2014-2019 and The best model fitted to the data for input to reservoir and evaporation has been respectively SARIMA (1,0,3)(1,1,1) and SARIMA (1,0,1)(1,0,1). In this way all the factors affecting the volume of water in the dam as well as the interaction of supply and demand for drinking water, industry, agriculture and environmental was modeling in programming VENSIM. Then 9 scenarios was defined for the future allocation of water resources. The results showed that the optimal scenario of the dam is able to provide 4,300 hectares of agricultural land in the state percentage water supply, drinking, industry, agriculture and the environment demands, respectively, 98, 90, 87 and 94. In addition, by changing of the irrigation system from surface irrigation to pressurized system and increasing irrigation efficiency by 30% the cultivated area, can be developed up to 3900 hectares.