Evaluation of Tabriz Sprawl Growth using Satellite Images and Probability Development Modeling

Urbanization is one of the main consequences of the Industrial Revolution, which has transformed the process of urbanization and expanded immigration to cities. One of the main results of the urbanization development in recent decades is land use change in cities and urban size growth, which has caused urban sprawl growth to be one of the most important challenges of spatial planning and has resulted in social and environmental damages. In recent years, planners, economists, ecologists and urban managers have used a variety of models to assess changes in user behavior and to examine the outcomes of these changes in the future, and these models are being developed day by day. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the past development of Tabriz and predict these changes in the future. The research method is descriptive-analytical, which is applied to the evaluation and modeling of a specific area using satellite imagery and other data and factors influencing past development and the future of the city. The LTM model, which combines the capabilities of artificial neural networks and geographic information systems, has been used in this research. At first, the data were prepared as raster and then in Acsi format. After evaluating the past changes in neural networks, the results were prepared as raster maps. By selecting the learning pattern and network structure and the results of the urban development process, a possible development of the city of Tabriz for 2024 was prepared. The results of the evaluation a 10-year period (2006-2016) indicated the development of the periphery and sprawl of the city in Tabriz, which most of the surrounding Lands of the city have become urban structure, and with the continuation of this trend for the future development, most of the agricultural land and the periphery will change. The results of the possible development of the city in 2024 indicated that more than 3600 hectares of peripheral lands will be allocated to urban development, which will complicate Tabriz's urban problems and challenges, and continuing of the development of Urban Sprawl, not only increases environmental problems, but also increases the cost of development and management.