Investigating the perceptions of Lake Urmia drying risk in changing the patterns of rural behavior Case study: villages of the eastern side of the Lake Urmia

The perceived risk of villagers against drought can be seen in their mental judgment regarding the degree of drought risk and the change in their unconstructive behaviors. Due to the devastating effects on rural communities, drying of Lake Urmia requires understanding of the behaviors and reactions of villagers in order to increase their susceptibility to drought. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of drought risk perception of Urmia Lake in changing the behavior of villagers. For this purpose, a combination of personal and social psychology was used. The research method was descriptive-analytic. For analyzing the conceptual model and the experimental model, the path analysis method was used. From 83 villages located 30 km from the east coast of Lake Urmia, random sampling method was used to select 43 villages as sample size. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts and the reliability of the questionnaire was 0.88-0.95 using Cronbach's alpha formula. The findings of the study showed that the level of risk perception was higher than the median with a theoretical mean (7> 4.87>1). The results of the path analysis method on the dependent variable of practical risk reduction behaviors showed that varieties of drought-resistant agricultural product selection, knowledge and skills, income, age, length of stay, participation in training programs, renovation and improvement of irrigation canals on behaviors Drastic risk reduction measures have a direct effect. Also, the results of path analysis on the dependent variable of intention to reduce risk behaviors in the future showed that drought-tolerant crop varieties, self-efficacy, age, education level, trust, previous experience of risk and accountability had positive effect and variables of optimistic bias, income and age The variables of risk perception have had a negative effect. Also, in the study of indirect effects through the medium of risk perception, two variables of beliefs and income are influenced by influencing the variable on the intention and intention of reducing the risk of drought risk.