A Prediction Model for the Crisis Caused by the Critical Regions in the Metropolitan Cities

The importance of the crisis and its related issues has been demonstrated by the occurrence of its unpredictable crisis. Organizations that do not have crisis management plans in dealing with crises have spent more than two and a half times of their vital time than that of organizations with such plans in crises. Therefore, the prediction of a crisis before the occurrence is very important, because it can lead to crisis prevention. This research was aimed at developing a prediction model for crisis caused by critical points in metropolitan cities. To do this research, dimensions, components and indices were assessed by systematic review of theoretical foundations and the opinion of the experts. It was validated using content validity measures and the fittest index, and factor-validation model with 4 dimensions, 14 components and 60 indicators was designed.Findings and For all four dimensions (cultural, socio-physical-economic-control and supervision), all indexes had a factor load greater than 0.5 and a 95% confidence level (t>1.96). The second-rank factor loadings for all components and indices at 95% confidence level are significant and confirmed. For all the research variables, the Cronbach's alpha and the combined reliability were higher than 0.7 indicating the reliability of the measuring instrument. Considering the amount of factor load, the socio-cultural dimension has the largest share in measuring the model, the second dimension is the physical dimension (urban space), the economic dimension and control and supervision, respectively, are the third and fourth ranks.