Effects of faulty estimate in component reliability on system designing: a simulation approach

Component reliability is usually estimated based on economical sampling plan and historical data analysis. In such process, two types of errors may occurs. According to a conventional view, the type 1 and 2 errors respectively referred to lower and higher component reliability estimation are arisen.  Generally, it is commonly thought that the first type error leads to an under-estimation of the whole system's reliability, and the second type over-estimates it, which in turn, causes false amplification or ignores the need to boost the system by using redundant components. This article is devoted to the role of component reliability estimation error in the design of a multi-state system (MSS). To this aim and from the literature survey, two optimal designed MSS evaluated by a proposed validated computer simulation model under assumption of positive and negative errors. Result revealed that any type of uncertain estimation increases with the over-designing risk and applying more number of components in the optimum system designing, but fortunately no weakness in its functionality. The greater the error, the more redundant components in MSS design.