Studying the Effect of Non-OPEC Member States Supply on the Price of Petroleum

This study deals with the changing trend of producing petroleum by non-member states and its effect on the global price of the petroleum. Using vector error correction model, the hypothesis of this research, i.e., " the petroleum supplied by OPEC non-member states is one of the factors affecting the price of petroleum in the global markets", have been studied. The period of study starts 1991 to the end of 2006 and the variables are used on a seasonal basis. The results of the static experiment, Johansson convergence test and the vector error correction model suggest that there has been a convergent relationship between the petroleum supply variable in the non-OPEC member states and the price of petroleum both in the long run and short term and there is a negative relationship between the variable of petroleum supply by nonmember states on the variable of price and this proves the hypothesis.