Assessing of the Relationship between Regional Resilience and Environmental Vulnerability in the Eastern Region of Urmia Lake by Using of GIS

Explaining resilience to threats is an understanding of how social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities are significant in improving the resilience and identifying different dimensions of resilience in human societies. On the one hand, the type of attitude to the topic of resilience and its way of analysis, plays a key role in determining how well the current situation is and its causes, and on the other hand, it can play a fundamental role in the implementation of risk reduction policies and measures." The relationship between vulnerability and resilience becomes necessary when the issue under consideration is considered from the perspective of environmental risk studies. Therefore, the main question for many researchers in this field is whether resilience is opposed to vulnerability. Or is resilience a factor in vulnerability? And does vulnerability in a simple definition refer to the ability to lose or not? (Cutter, 1996)." Vulnerability and resilience concepts provide valuable conceptual frameworks and models for understanding how communities and human systems cope with environmental and social change (Adger, 2006). In the present study, considering the importance of analyzing the relationship between vulnerability and resilience among global research and the level of research conducted in the country, we try to examine the situation of these two concepts by applying a quantitative approach in the eastern shore of Lake Urmia.  In this study, the eastern region of t Lake Urmia, including 8 counties: Azarshahr, Osko, Bonab, Tabriz, Shabestar, Ajabshir, Maragheh and Malekan, were selected as a study area.The study area is one of the most important and sensitive areas in East Azarbaijan province, which has been the focus of population and various economic activities. In addition, the eastern shore of Lake Urmia has been affected by ecological changes in recent years. Given that the main purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive and integrated approach to determining the state of vulnerability and resilience to natural hazards and disasters, therefore, in the first step, the study area from the perspective of environmental threats and disasters. Naturally, the resilience capacity of the region has been examined in the form of political divisions of the village and at the level of rural settlements. Therefore, the fundamental question of the present study can be posed in such a way that what is the relationship between environmental vulnerability and the resilience capacity of the region within the eastern shores of Lake Urmia?

The research methodology is descriptive-analytic and its purpose due to application in to the local planning and rural development system is applied. By doing literature review, an innovative approach was introduced by combining quantitative methods of index basis and GIS in explaining the relationship between environmental vulnerability and regional resilience. Accordingly, two innovative index including Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and Regional Resilience Index (RRI) were implemented. For the vulnerability assessment 8 criteria and for the resilience assessment 19 criteria were chosen.

In research aimed at analyzing resilience, the most important issue to consider is vulnerability analysis and recognizing the threats ahead in order to identify resilience capacity and capabilities. As stated in the sections of the first article, the approach of resilience in the field of management and planning, and especially in crisis management, is in the stages of its evolution and evolution. From this point of view, in terms of concept, operation and application, it has problems and weaknesses that have been explained in the theoretical foundations section. According to the findings of the study (Cutter, 1996), reproduction due to environmental hazards, as well as hazards, hazards and disasters in nature have a spatial and geographical nature in nature, so its study from this perspective will be useful and beneficial. Many studies such as Cutter et al., 2008; Cutter, Burton, & Emrich, 2010; Rose, 2007) have tried to provide quantitative analytical models and operational frameworks for improving and enhancing the resilience of communities using appropriate indicators. The most important distinguishing feature of previous studies in the field of regional resilience assessment with the present study can be considered in the lack of consideration of spatial-spatial dimensions and the multi-spectral criteria used. In the present study, by emphasizing the spatial dimensions and combining the quantitative approach of decision-making approach, an attempt was made to examine the relationship between the two concepts of environmental vulnerability and regional resilience. In the present study, according to this principle in planning and management for crisis occurrence, first the type of threats and environmental hazards in the study area were described Then, using 8 selected criteria, the vulnerability situation was analyzed due to environmental hazards. The results of this part of the study indicate that 27% of the study area is located on the highly vulnerable class. Where the whole area of ​​Azarshahr and Ajabshir is covered and many areas of Osko, Shabestar and Tabriz are also in the process of being damaged. Recognizing the vulnerability of the study area, it should be acknowledged that the southern and southeastern regions are in good condition and are in low-vulnerability classes. However, in the process of resilience measurement, which initially included three indicators of social resilience, access to communication infrastructure and resilience of building strength, and finally, by merging the three mentioned layers, the overall regional resilience index was obtained. The results of this process show that 43% of the total area of the region is in the desired state of resilience and 27% have less resilience to environmental hazards in the study area. The eastern shore of Lake Urmia is one of the equipped axes and development of large population centers in the province of East Azerbaijan and is also a bridge between other regions in the northwest of the country. Therefore, its vulnerability disrupts other regional functions as well. Therefore, the essence of the findings of this study is that this range is exposed to damage caused by environmental hazards. So that the drying of Lake Urmia affects the functions of human settlements in this region and if this trend continues, it will have irreparable effects on the environmental and human structures of this region. In addition, with the possibility of an earthquake in this area, one of the vulnerable areas of Tabriz metropolis and the surrounding rural settlements will be. Therefore, in order to prepare in advance, the resilience of local communities at the level of rural settlements is felt more than ever. Also, the study area, especially in the marginal areas of Lake Urmia in the cities of Azarshahr and Ajabshir against the dangers of floods is seriously vulnerable.

  The results showed that 62% of the study area was in high vulnerability, with its spatial distribution pattern mainly in the center of the region and within the administrative limits of counties like: Azarshahr, Ajabshir and Osko. In contrast, 43% of the area has a high capacity of resiliency and 27% of the total area is in a low resilient situation. In addition, a total of 168 rural areas have been recognized in identified areas with a low resilience capacity.