Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach

 The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchange rate price were predicted using the system dynamics from 2004 to 2022 , and the results were compared with the trend and real exchange rate of the exchange rate. The results show that the exchange rate trend over the 19-year period has always been with a slight upward slope, but during the years 2012 -2013 and 2018-2017 there was a sharp rise in price and slope that is exactly the same as the real exchange rate trend. Also, comparing the exchange rate data to the market price and the expected exchange rate until 2018 shows that this model has been able to accurately assess the trend and predict possible failures. Key word: Exchange rate, system dynamics, forecast, trend.