Application of Artificial Neural Network and Regression Model to Predict the Phenomenon of Dust in the City of Ahvaz

Dust is one of the phenomena of destructive climate in the western provinces that causes great damage to the environment and many factors are involved in creating this problem. The aim of this study is to predict the phenomenon of dust in Ahvaz city. In this study, Ahvaz synoptic data during the years (2000-2010) have been used. These data include mean dew point (in degrees Celsius), mean wind speed in knots, relative humidity in terms of average percentage and average monthly rainfall as input, and data on dusty days as target. Networks were introduced. Then, using causal modeling, the relationships between the variables are extracted and finally, the model is tested by neural network and stepwise regression model. The results confirm the ability of more than 74% of the model used to predict the dust phenomenon in Ahvaz. The regression rate of dust data in a linear combination with the variables entered in the equation is equal to 0.651. Also, the resulting coefficient of determination is equal to 0.424 and the modified coefficient of determination is equal to 0.410; That is, in fact, about 41% of the variance of the dust variable is explained and justified through independent variables.