Structural analysis of Urban flourishing with a futuristic approach(Case Study: Ahwaz Metropolis)

Urban prosperity is a concept related to balanced development and harmonized in the environment is committed to justice and embodies human activity as a kind of social construction. Nowadays a different view of the future has caused man not to seek the future, but to build his desired future by using various tools. On the other hand, the challenge of new urban life, environmental and social problems lead to future research approach in urban planning and using various devices to build a favorable future. The present study uses the technique of cross-impact analysis, which is one of the common methods in futurism by using MicMac software, which it has analyzed the components of urban prosperity in Ahvaz metropolis. In the following using the Delphi method which 30 components in five areas such as (productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, equality and social participation, and environmental sustainability) extracted as indicators of urban prosperity. The results indicate that there are five categories in the scattering pages like (influencing factors, bilateral factors, regulatory factors, influential factors and independent factors) are identifiable. Finally among the 30 mentioned factors after examining the effectiveness of these factors on each other and on the future situation of the metropolis of Ahvaz by direct and indirect methods, 7 key factors in (literacy rate, slum families, air pollution, unemployment rate, cultural centers, life expectancy at birth and poverty rates) have been selected to play the crucial role in the future situation of urban prosperity in Ahvaz. The results show that none of the components of urban prosperity in Ahvaz can be defined by experts as a target factor. This issue indicates the multifaceted issue of prosperity of Ahvaz metropolis.