Strategic Surprise and the National Security Governance of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Strategic surprise occurs when the national security system is unable to fully preventa crisis or of a priori management of the situation to reduce the damages caused bythe crisis. National security governance also means the activism of certaininstitutions of the country's political structure that have a specific mission in thefield of national security by law. Accordingly, the main question is what effect doesstrategic surprise have on the governance of national security in the IslamicRepublic of Iran? The results of this article show that the occurrence of strategicsurprise postpones the national security decision-making process and increases thecosts of security. While increasing cognitive bias, ambiguity in the role ofthreatening actors, keeping national security officials busy, reducing the stability andinfluence of national sovereignty, doubts about security priorities, increasinginsignificant signals and increasing public distrust of the national security system aresome examples of the impact of strategic surprise on the national securitygovernance. This article suggests ways to reduce these surprises.