Forecasting the Consequences of Climate Change for Wheat Crop in Hormozgan Province

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the highest impact from climate change. Wheat is one of the most important strategic products in the world and its yield and quantity are significant for humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the likely effects of climate change on wheat production in Hormozgan Province (2004-2018). In order to more accurately estimate the function of wheat yield to climatic components, the climatic indices of Hormozgan Province were divided into two climatic regions. Using weather scenarios, the yield, product and crop area of the wheat crop were predicted for the years 2025 to 2100. Finally, consumer welfare, producer welfare and overall welfare were calculated using nonlinear programming model and partial equilibrium method. The results showed that the factors temperature and management have inverse and rainfall and technology have direct relationship with the wheat yield. Projections showed a declining trend for yield, production and crop area up to the year 2100 where Area 2 had a higher reduction than Area 1. The results showed that the wheat production suffered higher reduction due to climate change compared to the reduced acreage. The overall welfare showed a decreasing trend for years to come and consumers will experience more harm than producers. Therefore, due to the different effects of climate change on wheat products, it is advisable to find ways to adapt to the climatic conditions. These attempts include but are not limited to changing the region's cultivation pattern, optimal management of the resources and producing climate resistant seeds.