Modeling LandUse Changes Using Land Change Modeler for Prediction of the 2030 LandUse on the upstream area of the Siahroud River Basin

An optimized land management and the planning requires updating information on the land use changes over time. The application of remote sensing capabilities and land use change modeler (LCM) may provide a suitable platform for simulating land use changes. The LCM, land use changes in the upstream area of the Siahrud River Basin were evaluated in the 1977-2015 period and simulated for 2030. The land use maps of 1977, 1988, 1998, 2009 and 2015 were prepared, using the unsupervised and supervised classification methods of the Landsat satellite images, and the LCM, for the 1977-1988, 1988-1998 and 1998-2009 periods were implemented in the form of three models. After evaluation the performance of these models, the most appropriate one was selected. Using the data for the 2009-2015 periods a prediction was made for the year 2030. The results indicate that the use of appropriate inputs for the LCM, the application of the combined methods in classification, and utilizing expert knowledge, can be effective in improving the classification results and increasing the efficiency of the LCM. (Kappa coefficient 0.82 to 0.91). Predicting land use changes in the Siahroud River Basin during the 1977 to 2030 period indicates a 67% decrease in paddy fields and 12% decrease in forest area and a 34-fold increase in the extent of the mixed agricultural and orchards, and threefold increase in the extent of the residential areas.