Determining the key factors affecting the freight rail transportation system in the 50-year horizon using the Delphi technique

Abstract The main goal of this research is identifing the factors influencing the future of the rail transportation system in the freight sector. In this research, identifing the factors for the rail transportation system in the freight sector using a combination of library and developmental purpose, PESTEL model, Delphi method and SMART PLS software has been used in the analysis. The three stages of this research seek to present the most important factors affecting the future of rail freight in Iran. In the first stage, all factors were identified. In the second stage, consensus was reached using the Delphi method in three consecutive periods.In the third stage, based on the opinion of experts and the use of smartPLS software, out of 168 factors identified, 76 factors are considered more important as the main effective factors in Iran's 50-year foresight which were classified into 8 main categories. Identifying and planning for the factors that affect this industry is of particular importance. By identifying indicators, planners and policymakers will determine which indicators we are important. The indicators also warn policymakers and planners if we want to move towards total goal, which indicators should we turn into the optimal indicator.