Predicting the Aging Trend of Ilam Population and the Necessity for Implementing Health Services for the Elderly Until 2050

The process of demographic transition has led to a change in the age of populations. Almost all countries around the globe have passed or are passing through the reproductive phase, which naturally contributes to the rising elderly populations. The present study was conducted to predict future trends of the elderly population in Ilam city.

The secondary analysis method, population forecasting model, and scenario producing approach were used to assess demographic changes. Data analysis and the prediction of population features were performed using Spectrum and Mortpak software.

Among the important findings of this study was that the elderly population is rising in Ilam. Currently, the elderly population comprises 5% of the total population of Ilam, which will increase to more than 20% in 2050.

Policy makers and managers should consider implementing social welfare and health care services for the elderly in the future.