Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Frames in Assessing Land Use Change, a Step towards Sustainable Development (Case Study: Mazandaran Coastline)

The development trend in Mazandaran coastline province over the past decades has caused the degradation of natural environment and increasing pollution of the Mazandaran Sea. According to the principles of urban planning, and by the approach of sustainable development for achieving a viable community, it is needed to prevent the increasing degradation of natural lands. Thus, the present study, within the framework of sustainable development approach, is trying to reduce the process of demolition of lands with natural values in case of Mazandaran coastline province. Based on the importance and environmental values of these lands and in order to prevent and reduce land demolition, it is necessary to plan with emphasis on ecological protection approach by modeling and forecasting of future developments. Thus, the purpose of this study is to predict land use changes in the year of 1420 and to determine how developments in the natural landscape are affected. After predicting land use changes, it is necessary to use a tool such as scenario to select a desirable situation that puts the least risk and threat on the natural environment. Therefore, using the selected geographic perspective model, urban development and land use changes were analyzed. Finally, it was concluded that the selected scenario, due to the relationship between urban and rural centers, could lead to the formation of a network of centers that could contribute to economic cohesion through strong links and interactions. In this scenario, construction is under the control of the urban and local management so that it can reduce the trend of speculation.