Dynamic Analysis of the Performance of the Iranian Banking System in Uncertainty Condition

The present study explains a dynamic model for developing the performance of the Iranian banking system.

first, by examining the country's economic trend, uncertainties affecting the performance of the banking system based on international indicators of CAMELS were identified, and the network of uncertainties in the Iranian banking system to determine critical uncertainties using the approach SNA was evaluated. In the next stage, the dynamic model of the banking system performance in uncertainty conditions was designed using the SD based on the data of Bank Saderat Iran, and the model was simulated over a 20-year horizon.

According to the research findings, four strategies of bank assets and costs management, the attraction of financial resources and profitability, bank management empowerment and banking infrastructure development, and a selected mixed strategy were identified and simulated, which includes 1- increase investment in banking infrastructure, 2- Create special mechanisms for collecting receivables, 3- Manage bank costs by the agility of processes and empower human resources, as well as monitor the bank's costs, 4. Increase the efficiency of the appropriate customer validation process, 5. Increase the trust and security of depositors by providing financial transparency reports and effective communication with key stakeholders.

Originality / Value: 

Reforming the structure of the banking system, formulating efficient monetary and financial policies and regulations, and effective supervision of the country's banks can transfer uncertainties to the banks with less severity, and only in this situation can banks develop their performance with long-term planning.