Mitigating the effects of climate change by promoting sustainable urban agriculture model using BWM and ARAS methods (Case study: District 22 of Tehran Municipality)

Climate change and the increase in the population of cities have caused many environmental problems. The decrease in the function of urban agriculture has also made the efficiency of green infrastructures and their ecosystem services naturally inefficient. The purpose of this research is to provide a model of sustainable cultivation of productive plants in cities to moderate the effects of climate change and land use in District 22 of Tehran Municipality. In this study, the land use map of 2000 and 2020 was made using Landsat satellite images. Then, the LCM model was used to predict land use changes in 2050. RCP scenarios were simulated to investigate climate change. 4 criteria and 21 sub-criteria and the best-worst method (BWM) and the cumulative ratio evaluation method (ARAS) were used to obtain the weight of the selection criteria of fruitful plants. Based on the obtained results, it was determined that green and agricultural areas will change by 12% and -4.5% from 2000 to 2050, respectively. The risk of climate change also predicted a warming of 1.32 to 2.27 degrees. Based on this, the suitability map of the region for urban agriculture and the area of suitability classes according to the criterion of compatibility with the environmental conditions of the region (with a weight of 0.472), ecological conditions (0.268), compatibility with the urban environment (with a weight of 0.179) and aesthetic-cognitive (with a weight of 0.081) was prepared. According to the opinion of experts, fruitful plant species such as Wild Pistachio, Christs thorn, Wild almond, Pistachio, Olive have found the highest priority for cultivation in large and medium urban scale. About 40% of the area has good and high suitability for planting these plants.