Investigating the convergence of housing prices in Iranian cities (spatial dynamic panel approach)

Economically, housing is a commodity with special characteristics that distinguish it from other commodities and complicate its market analysis (supply and demand). Housing price fluctuations have a very important effect on the national and regional economy. Fluctuations may potentially affect migration and capital mobility between regions. Investigating the long-term equilibrium relationship between housing prices in all regions of the country can answer the question of whether housing prices in all regions will converge or not. This research examines the convergence of housing prices from spatial econometric methods and dynamic panel data among Iranian cities. For this purpose, the housing prices of 31 Iranian cities from 1379 to 1397 are examined. This study is based on the theory that housing price shocks in one region can have a ripple effect on other regions due to migration, asset conversion and spatial arbitrage. If this hypothesis is acceptable, the relative price ratios of the regions should be stable. Although there may be a difference in the short term, it should converge in the long term. Therefore, when a housing price shock hits one of Iran's cities, due to the ripple effect of this shock, it affects the housing prices of other cities, and finally, the housing prices of all cities converge in the long term. In such a case, considering that regional planning policies have the same long-term effects for all regions, macroeconomic policy makers cannot independently control the housing prices of a region. However, planning policies are still effective on the short-term path of prices. The results show that there is a convergence of housing prices between cities in Iran. Moreover, the spatial effects are influential in the convergence of housing prices in cities, and the result confirms the hypothesis of a wave effect in the convergence of housing prices in regions. In such a case, regional planning policies will have the same long-term effects for all regions.