Prospects for Change and Continuity in Turkish Foreign Policy Following the June 2023 Elections

This writing seeks to outline key questions and trends in Turkish foreign policy, considering its domestic and international dynamisms. What is the appraisal of Erdogan’s Turkiye of its national role and international status and in case of a change in government, what will be the outlook of Turkish foreign policy in the post-Erdogan period? There are some key statements concerning Turkish foreign policy-making: First, Turkiye’s new strategic culture does not recognize a clear boundary between the friend and foe, as it constantly changes according to environmental dynamisms and domestic political debates. Second, war in Ukraine has made Turkiye’s balancing policy face a serious challenge as it has raised ambiguity in anti-Westernism in Turkiye-Russia relations. Third, instead of being a reflection of a turn in Turkish regional policy, the process of normalization of relations with regional countries largely represents a resetting of foreign policy with Turkiye’s domestic dynamisms and surrounding areas’ geopolitical realities. If the opposition parties come to power, the new leaders will not retreat from Turkiye’s spheres of influence in surrounding areas, but policies arising from Erdogan’s personal and partisan preferences will undergo change among which reviving relations with the traditional Western allies will be given priority.