The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Performance of the Unemployment Insurance Fund With the Approach System Dynamics: A Case Study of Social Security Organization of Iran

In crisis situations, when production and economic growth are faced with negative impulses, the increase in unemployment causes the loss or reduction of income of many people. The unemployment insurance fund prevents the poverty of the unemployed by making regular payments, and through the job search mechanism, it can cause the unemployed to re-enter the labor market. Therefore, unemployment insurance plans are important tools in the economy to deal with crises.

In this research, by modeling the resources and expenses of the social security organization with the system dynamics method, the effects of the COVID-19 disease on the unemployment insurance fund and also forecasting the conditions of this organization in the coming years have been investigated. Investigations were carried out in the form of 3 scenarios: “current conditions of the unemployment insurance fund without government assistance”, “current conditions of the unemployment insurance fund with government assistance” and “help to the company to maintain human resources”.

According to the findings of this research, the scenario of helping the company to maintain human resources, i.e. paying 50% of the unemployment allowance from the fund and paying the other 50% from the employer, i.e. accepting the dual conditions of unemployment and employment at the same time, can Put the unemployment insurance fund in a better position compared to the other two scenarios.

The findings showed that the rules of unemployment insurance in the country are generous and the mechanism of monitoring the process of employment of the beneficiaries is not designed efficiently. Also, the investigations of this study generally show that if the goal is to maintain the human resources of the companies, the situation of the unemployment fund will be in a more favorable condition.