A comprehensive model of the regional portfolio of renewable energies in Iran, focusing on arid land

In addition to rich resources of fossil fuels, Iran has a lot of renewable energy potential. On the other hand, considering the climate diversity in the country and the natural conditions and potentials in different regions, instead of national planning, we should move towards regional energy planning and develop a regional renewable energy portfolio. In the present research, firstly, the potential measurement criteria of different types of renewable energy, including solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric and biomass, based on geographic information system maps and data received from the Meteorological Organization and SATBA, for 1361 latitudes and longitudes, has been scored. Then, using the Rapidminer software, the geographic points were divided into 5 clusters, each cluster includes areas of equal potential with the greatest similarity. Two of these 5 clusters are considered to be among the dry lands of the country. Then, based on the review of library resources and usage from the opinions of SATBA experts (Renewable Energy Research Group), a fuzzy inference model based on 5 sustainable development criteria including: access to technology, investment costs, capital productivity, employment rate, and environmental consequences along with design potential measurement criteria and based on the fuzzy rules defined on these criteria. The percentage share of each type of energy in the energy portfolio of each cluster was calculated. In the final step, based on demographic criteria including unemployment rate, population growth rate, acceptance culture (literacy rate), investment security, to prioritize clusters for strategic planning of the government and other influential institutions such as governorates, municipalities and chambers of commerce. For example, in cluster 4, includes some cities in the provinces of Isfahan, Khorasan, Yazd, Kermanshah, Fars, and Kohkiloyeh, which are classified as arid and semi-arid regions of the country according to the criteria of potential measurement and development criteria that has an energy portfolio with 25% share of wind energy, 39% share of solar energy, 10% share of hydroelectric energy and 26% share of biomass energy. Population growth and investment security are the first priority.