Predicting the labor force participation rate in Iran using neural network based Simulations

More than 70% of Iran's population are in working age and the country is currently placed in the demographic window period. Due to the fact that Iran is in the demographic window period, the high rate of labor force participation will be a platform for economic growth and development of the country. Due to the effect of the rate on economic growth, its prediction can provide a deeper and more comprehensive view of the supply of labor for future policy making and planning. Surely, the knowledge of the feedbacks of a decision will lead to the presentation of a more comprehensive and purposeful plan with the desired economic growth and development outputs. In this paper, relying on neural network-based simulations, we seek to predict the rate of labor force participation of women, men and the total population for the period 2018-2028. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB software using the data from International Labor Organization. These data are related to 27 consecutive years from 1990 to 2017. The results show a declining trend in the participation rate men, women and the total population until 2028. Based on the results, the rate of participation of men, women and the total population aged 15 to 64 years during 2018 to 2028 will change from 74.5 to 73.5, 0.16 to 0.14 and from 46.5 to 44.5 respectively. The results of this article are a wake-up call for planners and policy makers, at the macro level, to pay special attention to targeted planning in the field of employment and investment, programs that can make the best use of the opportunity of the demographic window of the country.