Investigating the Scenarios of non-Muslim non-Iranian Tourists of Mashhad Within 2025 Perspective

The uncertainty caused by environmental complexities has made it difficult to forecast the future of Tourism in Mashhad in terms of non-Muslim tourists visiting the city, about whom no sufficient information exists. Therefore, this study sought to investigate the trend of variations in the visits made to Mashhad by non-Muslim tourists using the scenario writing method. To this end, this applied study used the analytical-qualitative approach, collecting the required data through detailed in-person interviews. In this regard, twenty-seven interviews were made in three phases with tourism experts in such fields as sociology, economics, planning, and specialized tourism services. In the first phase, the factors involved in attracting non-Muslim tourists to Mashhad were identified according to the views offered by the experts in interviews using the Delphi technique. In the second phase, the critical driving forces were identified based on two criteria of effectiveness and uncertainty. Finally, the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios concerning the future of non-Muslim tourism in Mashhad were described. The study’s findings revealed that smartizing tourism, making connections between tourism in Mashhad and its neighboring cities, increasing the number of media advertisements, improving the hospitality culture, and promoting a sense of security in the visiting tourists were the most important driving forces at the local level. Therefore, the number of Mashhad’s non-muslim tourists could be increased within the study period by improving IT infrastructure (including electronic trading, and electronic banking), introducing neighboring cities and villages of Mashhad and their tourist attractions, offering instructions regarding hospitality (especially for taxi drivers, business and shop owners), creating tourism police, and providing security in high-trafficking urban places.