Financial evaluation of the use of short-term flood forecasting in the operation of electric power plants (case study: Karun Dam 4)

In this research, the flow of the river leading to the Karun 4 Dam was developed using the NAM simulation model and the precipitation, temperature and evaporation parameters were modeled. To predict the flow, meteorological maps of the COLA were used to predict precipitation and temperature. According to the results more than 70% of the predictions in the flood period were observations, the use of this system for the management of Karun 4 dam hydropower plant has resulted in significant economic benefits and financial incomes. The results of the research showed that by relying on the flood warning system, even in flood seasons, the volume of the reservoir can be kept at a high level to increase the efficiency and electricity production, and in case of warning, if necessary, the volume of the reservoir can be increased to trigger the flood. Lower levels decreased. Also, due to the accurate functioning of six-day forecasts in low water years such as the water year 2015-2016, early water extraction was put on the agenda, so water extraction was done this year in March. Early water withdrawal in this water year saved 400 million cubic meters of water.