Spatial Measurement and Modeling of Urmia City Vulnerability against Fire with Emphasis on Passive Defense

In recent years, communities around the world have experienced major urban fires and hundreds have lost their lives. It must be acknowledged that a percentage of crises are always an integral and natural part of systems life, however, a large part of the threats, crises and inflammations are imposed and must be anticipated and prevented before they occur with proper management and application of passive defense. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to Measure and model the spatial vulnerability of Urmia to fire with a passive defense approach, so that the type of research is applied and the research method is descriptive- analytical and data collection has been done through library, field and questionnaire studies. To achieve the purpose of the research, 14 indicators have been selected based on the opinions of the elites and information layers have been formed for them in GIS software. BWM multi-criteria decision making method was used to calculate the weight of the indicators and the results were analyzed in GAMS software. Finally, the weight obtained from the BWM method is multiplied and combined in 14 standardized indicators with fuzzy functions. The results show that 12% are in very low vulnerability zone, 31% are in low vulnerability zone, 14% are in medium vulnerability zone, 29% are in high vulnerability zone and 14% are in very high vulnerability zone. To analyze the spatial autocorrelation of vulnerable zones, Moran statistic has been used and in order to model the spatial vulnerability of Urmia city against fire, cold and hot spot analysis has been used.