Potential of Accelerated Integration of Solar Electrification in Kenya’s Energy System

The global electricity demand is rapidly growing due to population increase and industrialization. However, the reliance on fossil fuels and other non-renewable energy resources has resulted in climate change and other unsustainability-related issues. This study aims to determine the significant penetration levels of Solar PV on system operations and production costs based on the current year (business as usual scenario) and the accelerated Solar PV scenario (hypothetical future) in the Kenyan electricity generation system. A one-year dynamic analysis based on an hourly time step energy demand was performed using the Energy PLAN simulation tool. The current peak demand for electricity in Kenya was established to be 2,056.67 MW with an installed capacity of 3,074.34 MW with a 2.47% contribution by Solar PV while the curtailed energy was 285.51 GWh. The simulation results showed that large-scale installations of Solar PV can decrease CO₂-equivalent emissions from 0.134 Mt to 0.021 Mt. Both scenarios are presented in terms of their ability to avoid excess electricity production regarding system operations and production costs. Increasing the share of Solar PV in electricity generation is possible by as much as 39.56% (technical) and 30.54% (market economic) simulation. Additionally, the Solar PV electricity produced increased to 19.76 TWh/year from 11.90 TWh/year. Furthermore, the Market Economic Simulation showed that the total investment annual cost for Solar PV in the hypothetical future was low at 10 mEUR/Year. Therefore, large-scale installation of Solar PV in Kenya's energy system is feasible and economically viable based on technical analysis and economic analysis.