Economic and Social Impact of Outbreak Corona Virus on Iran's Export of Tourism Industry; Based on Structural Path Analysis Approach

The world statistics indicate that the spread of Corona virus is caused a decrease of 70% in international tourism industry. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer this fundamental question: what is the effect of Corona disease on the sectoral production and institutional income distribution in Iran? To analyze this question, structural path analysis is used. For this purpose the new social accounting matrix (SAM) of 2016 is estimated. The matrix comprises 110 activities and 22 institutions (including income deciles of urban and rural households, companies and government). Then in consonance with the question, the effects of reducing foreign tourism expenditure on the production and income distribution have been worked out. The results show that the decrease in international tourism has led to decrease in total productions, for which the highest decreases belong to the wholesale and retail sectors, transportation, hotel and restaurant, services related to food and beverages and manufacturing of food products with shares of 16.6, 11.6, 10.5, 9.3 and 6.1 percent, respectively. The results of the structural path analysis approach reveal that among the factors of production, mixed income is the most and important path which stands for decrease of income of all institutions due to the reduction of foreign tourism expenditure, both for urban and rural households as well as companies.