Investigating the trend of temporal and spatial changes of dusty days and determining the contribution of climatic elements on its spread in Iran

Wind erosion and dust phenomenon are considered as one of the important processes of land degradation and a serious challenge in Iran. This phenomenon occurs due to the interaction between weather and terrestrial processes. The purpose of this research is to investigate and analyze the trend of temporal and spatial changes in the number of dusty days in Iran and to investigate the role of climate in its spread.

In this research, after receiving hourly and daily statistics of dust events (through 148 synoptic and climatology stations) and parameters of precipitation, evaporation, temperature as key climatic elements (from 171 stations) in 22 provinces located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, The spread of dust was investigated and the correlation between climate and dust was determined. After calculating the number of dust days in Iran, the information was called in the GIS environment and a map of the spatial changes of the parameter of the number of dust days in the three decades of 1987-1996, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 was prepared. In the following, the spatial analysis of this parameter and its expansion over three decades were investigated. Next, the climate parameter that had the highest correlation with the number of dusty days was selected and after preparing a map of its spatial changes in the GIS software environment, the spatial compatibility of the desired parameter with the expansion of the number of dusty days was investigated. In the next step, after performing the homogeneity test on the dust occurrences, the partial square regression model was used to determine the contribution of the three mentioned climatic elements as independent variables and the number of dust days as a dependent variable.

The results showed that the number of dusty days and the area of its occurrence have increased in Iran, so that in the last decade under study (2007-2016) compared to the previous two decades, the dustiest event occurred in Iran. This increase has been more intense especially in the western and southwestern regions of the country, which were also affected by extra-local dust events. These dust events have spread to the central regions of the country with greater frequency. The homogeneity test in many provinces showed a common change point (year 2007-2008) in the number of dusty days, which could be related to the beginning of severe droughts and climate changes from this year in Iran. The study of climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation) on changes in the number of dust days in Iran showed that during recent years, temperature had the highest significant correlation level (0.58) with the occurrence of dust. The temperature gradient map in the last decade (2007-2016) compared to the previous decade (1997-2006) also showed the increasing trend of temperature, especially in the western and southwestern regions as well as the southeastern regions of Iran. Modeling the effect of climatic parameters of temperature, precipitation and evaporation on the parameter of the number of dusty days showed that the contribution of the studied climatic parameters to the occurrence of dusty days is about 33% and other effects can be related to things such as human factors or soil characteristics, type of vegetation, solar radiation, etc.

In general, the results of examining the trend of changes in the number of dust days and climatic indicators for nearly 3 decades indicate a significant increase in the number of dust days in most parts of Iran and the conditions for this increase have been provided and if the trend of changing these indicators in the coming years is according to the current trend, the risk of environmental problems in the country can be expected to increase.