The Place of the Middle East in the New World Oil Order

This article seeks to explain the place of the Middle East in the present volatile conditions by adopting a new approach to recent developments in the oil market. To this purpose, a new analytical framework within the production peak theory has been used in order to extrapolate recent developments in the market and its future orientations. The main question is whether recent market developments have to be considered as a shock as was the case in the past combined with the rise of oil prices a number of less important changes, or the previous oil shocks should be regarded as shakes of a strong earthquake; an earthquake that will bring a new order into power and will drastically affect the role and place of the Middle East in the world oil market? The author accepts the second view and tries to explain the causes of this earthquake and its impact on the major five oil-producing countries in the Middle East notably Saudi Arabia.