Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary With the Level of Inflation?

The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increase at higher level of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increase with the level of inflation. Our findings indicate that inflation causes inflation uncertainty (there is a significant positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty). According to this result, Central bank of Iran can reduce inflation uncertainty by reducing inflation.