The Effects of the Increase in World Oil Price on GDP and Employment in Iran A CGE Approach

Oil revenue is a critical factor in Iran’s economy and affects GDP to a great extent. Oil and Gas sector is not only an influential economic activity per se, but also an important source of finance for other sectors in Iran’s economy. Using a CGE model, this paper studies the impact of an increase in world oil price over GDP and employment. The CGE models have been widely used for policy analysis since 1970s. These models are superior in that they enable economists to analyze the impact of policy change or exogenous factors in a systemic framework which encompass all sectors in an economy and the whole world.The present paper first introduces a CGE model for Iran and subsequently studies the impact of an increase in world oil price on GDP and employment. It shows that an increase in oil prices will increase both GDP - as a whole - and all its components individually. Moreover, the increase in oil prices will improve total employment which is a result of employment increase in oil and gas, construction and services sectors.