Cigarette Price and Smoking Rate in 1983-2005 Period in Iran

In spite of world wide advertisements about the disadvantages of smoking, it has been accepted as a mandatory fact, and huge benefits and tremendous amount of tax is obtained trough producing cigarettes. Cigarette demand has a relatively stable market, influenced by price fluctuations and a reverse relation found between the real value of flexibility and the price changes and the age. This research aimed to identify the effects of cigarette price on smoking rate in Iran. This is a descriptive-analytic study to find the relation between using cigarettes and its price changes during the 1983 to 2005 in the time series. Variables such as urban families’ income, metropolitan, unemployment, and literacy rate were studied, as well. The study’s population was Iran people who were chosen in the form of continuous sampling. There is an assumed correlation between a random variable and time. Data analyzed by DF and ADF tests and additive Durbin-Watson test. To test the model, we used OSL method. ADF test in meaningful level of a 5% and 10% for the number of cigarettes, literacy rate, and reminder of the model were viable. Variables such as the price, unemployment rate and family’s income were non-viable. Absolute value for price attraction for cigarette was less than 1 that means that cigarette was a low attractive good. By increasing the literacy rate, cigarette smoking was decreased, and high income did not mean more smoking. Unemployment rate had an effect on smoking.