The Estimate of Public Resources and Expenditures of the Government in the Fifth Development Plan

In this paper, the framework of public resources and expenditures of the government during the fifth development plan is estimated based on the four options. Two options are related to public resources of the government that the one continues the current trend in resources (nonenforcement of targeted subsidies Act) and another is the enforcement of targeted subsidies Act. Two options are also related to general government expenditures that the one continues the current trend in the cost of credit and another is more controlled cost of credits. Public resources and expenditures of the government are estimated for each of these four options. A) Current trend adopts in resources and the cost of credit. In this state, the government is faced with budget deficit in all the years of the fifth development plan period. B) (Current trend in resources and greater control of costs), the government will be faced budget deficit in 2010 and can not fulfill its financial obligations. C) (The enforcement of targeted subsidies Act and the current trend in the cost of credit), the government will be faced with financial constraints in all the years of the fifth development plan (budget deficit) and can not fulfill its financial obligations. D) (The enforcement of targeted subsidies Act and grater control on costs), except for 2011& 2013 the government can not fulfill its financial obligations in other years. Thus, if current trend continues in the current expenses of the government and new development projects arent stated, the government will be faced with budget deficit in all the years of the fifth development plan and has no free resources for new decision-making (take on new tasks) on the fifth development plan. This trend also occurs even if targeted subsidies are implemented. If the current expenses are controlled, can be expected that in some years the government is able to perform its obligations and there will be no budget deficit, that is, not to take on new tasks and more efficient to perform new duties. If the government no intends to control the market and if the real exchange is fixed at the prices of the end of the fourth development plan, resources and expenditures will be changed. Therefore, the average of exchange rate will be about 17.000 Rials if targeted subsidies arent implemented but targeted subsidies are implemented, about 20.000 Rials will be estimated for every dollar. In such a situation if current expenses of the government arent controlled (the last five years is continued), the government will be faced with budget deficit too. If only the current expenses are controlled, the government will have free resources for decision making on $31 billion (without the implementation of targeted subsidies) or $43 billion (with the implementation of subsidies) approximately.