نشریه مطالعات جمعیتی
پیاپی 5 (بهار و تابستان 1396)

Estimating and projecting population size in future is utmost important for governments, because  majority of government programs and plans have a close  relationship with population and its dynamics. The aim of this paper is to project the trend of population changes and population structure over the next 50 years using Agent-Based Simulation model. The model enables to analyse different scenarios of population changes, provide as strcutural model of changes,  modeling with heterogeneous entities and provide more realistic results because of probabilistic modeling. Simulation results was compared to projection results under different scenarios conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran. The results showed a significant correlation between the two which indicates the validity of simulation model. The results also indicated that  age at marriage does not have a significant correlation with the trend of population growth in next 15 year, while  in longer term, there will be a significant correlation  Analysis of the model indicate that Agent-Based Simulation can create probabilistic, heterogeneous with policy analysis features analytical framework which can simulate annual data with minimum cost and in a virtual mean.

In the absence of adequate registered data on death and due to uncertain coverage, there are several indirect methods which can be used to estimate the level of mortality. None of these methods are able to estimate age-specific mortality rates and therefore cannot meet the needs of study and planning areas. Therefore, in such circumstances, it is essential to use mortality models to adapt the estimated level of mortality with the standard age pattern of the models. However, each model is based on different experimental data and they have different levels of adaptation in different geographic regions. The main question of this article is that which model is more compatible with age pattern of mortality of Iran? Using data on death from Civil-Registration Vital Statistics and on population from Census, age specific death rates by sex have been calculated and the compatibility of models life table with the age pattern of death has been examined using Brass Logit Model. The results revealed that the differences between societies and changes in patterns and causes of mortality, especially changes in the timing by cause, emphasizing early mortality pattern due to accidents, the Iranian mortality pattern seems to be different. Although the age pattern of Iran's mortality is apparently compatible with the North model of Coale-Demeny Life-Tables, this does not mean the similarity of these two mortality patterns, and the definitive answer to this question requires further studies.

Attempt to recognize associated factors of gender equality, as one of the main indicators for social development, has acquired an outstanding role in social/demographic studies in recent years. However, limited attention has been made to the relationship between population dynamics and gender equality. To this end, the current study aimed to assess the relationship between population dynamic (fertility, mortality and migration) and gender equality using a descriptive-analytical approach and secondary data analysis and Time Series model during 1956-2011 in Iran. The findings are indicative of a considerable increase in gender equality during the study period. From among population dynamic, women’s life expectancy and gross migration rate had a positive and statistically significant effect on gender equality, while total fertility rate (TFR) did not show any statistically significant effect (upon controlling the effect of under 15 years old population proportion at final model).  According to the stationary R-square of the fitted time series model, three mentioned variables could explain around 52 percent of variations in gender equality during the study period.

This paper aims to determine the role of gender beliefs and gender division of domestic chores in fertility preference and intentions among men and women resided in Tehran. This article is based on a secondary analysis of the data gathered in a cross sectional survey among 920 men and women in reproductive age who had one child younger than 5 years and had attended to governmental health clinics for child vaccination during summer 2012. The results showed that fertility preferences among men and women with traditional gender beliefs were significantly greater than those with egalitarian gender attitudes. Women who benefited from greater support of their spouse in domestic chores, had significantly greater fertility preference.  Poisson Logarithm Model indicated that traditional gender attitudes were significant predictor of higher fertility preference after control of education and employment, only among women. While, there was no significant association between fertility intention and gender attitudes. The gender division of domestic chores was significantly associated with fertility intentions among women, not men. Women whose spouse had a greater contribution in domestic chore, showed greater fertility intention compared to other women. Results will have implications in policies to encourage fertility among young families by increasing the role of men in domestic chores and child rearing in Iran.

Various aspects of attitude and behaviors related to marriage and family formation have been changed over the recent decades in Iran. The present study investigates marital attitudes in five dimensions, including singlehood, marriage between non-relatives, priority of marriage over education for girls, marriage delay, and premarital heterosexual relationships. A survey was conducted among 723 women aged 15-49 years, who lived in the city of Yazd. A systematic random cluster sampling method was employed for data collection, which included 48 clusters of 15 households. Overall, the findings suggest that women’s attitudes towards various aspects of marriage and family formation do not greatly vary by age and marital status. In contrast, variables such as individualization, self-actualization and cultural capital are more important in explaining such differences. These results are consistent with those theoretical explanations which attempt to explain differences and changes in attitudes towards marriage and family in term of broader cultural and value shifts in contemporary societies. However, further studies are required to examine the process of integration between family attitudes, beliefs, and moralities with macro level values such as individualization, self-actualization and even a broad expectrum of other socio-cultural values such as the diffusion of development ideas, gender equality, post materialism, etc.

Optimal population size and an appropriate policy approach towards its achievement has been among the most important concerns of governments, particularly in developing countries. Over-population  can expose each country to various challenges. Unlike educational, health care and accommodation constraints, which can be handled with long-term or mid-term planning, natural resources are limited and mostly non-compensable by plans and human activities. Thus it could be asserted that the biggest obstacle against population growth is limitation of natural resources. Fresh water as an example is vital  for human life-cycle, and any shortage or contamination of water would cause serious and inevitable problems to the environment and people’s life. In this paper,  first, water resources and its capacity in Iran are assessed and as a next step, an index has been defined for annual consumption of fresh water using economic panel data. Then, by comparing this index with the Iranian water consumption, optimal population size has been estimated. We can conclude that with no serious change in current water consumption, Iran will encounter a serious challenge in water resources. Hence, according to these results, it is suggested New Population policies should consider natural resource and water limitations.

Return migration is a type of migration forms and patterns which attracted limited attention in research literature, particularly in Iran. Rise in urban-rural migration compared to  rural-urban migration in the 2001 Census, can indicate some changes in migration pattern in Iran, hence understanding such changes is important. The aim of this paper is to measure return migration and identify its associated factors based on available data. In this study, Neoclassic economic approach was employed to analyze return migration and its causes in different regions in Iran. The method used in this study was a secondary analysis of census data (2% data of Statistical Center of Iran). The study suggested that migrants return to some provinces such as Khorasan Razavi, Fars, Gilan and Mazanderan was more than others. Accompany the family, access to better housing and employment were identified as determinants of return migration. Access to better housing was one of the rationales for return migration which impacted different socio-economic classes and was observed in all different job categories (employer, employee, independent worker, private sector worker, etc.). Pattern of return migration represents a return to neighboring provinces, developed and semi-developed areas. Logistic regression analysis indicated that sex, education, age, migration flows and level of development explain 27% of changes in economic migration among return migrants.