فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 33 (بهار 1399)

In this paper, for evaluating the price setting model compatible with Iran's economy data, sectoral inflations are decomposed into macroeconomic and idiosyncratic shocks using a factor model. Based on the results, there is a significant difference in sectoral price responses to macroeconomic and idiosyncratic shocks. Some initial price setting models such as Calvo model cannot explain the heterogeneity price behavior of macroeconomic and idiosyncratic shocks. Two theoretical price-setting models that are able to explain this finding are rational-inattention model and multiple sector model with sticky prices. Using the results obtained from the factor model and other statistical characteristics of sectoral inflation, the frequency of price changes has little contribution to explaining the changes in size and the speed of response of prices to macroeconomic shock. Moreover, the idiosyncratic component is negatively correlated with the volatility of the common component. These findinges can not support a multi-sector model with sticky prices. Because this model predicts that the price response to the macroeconomic shock in a sector that has a relatively high price change frequency should be greater because the pricing evolution process is performed faster. On the othe hand, the results show that among the different sectors, idiosyncratic shocks that are more volatile are less responsive to macro shocks. These findings support the rational inattention model rather than a multi sector model with sticky prices.

Empirical studies mainly model monetary transmission mechanism and the role of credit channel as being symmetric across business cycles. Since the degree of asymmetric information and information stickiness in different business periods varies according to the state of the economy of each country, therefore, it would be necessary to evaluate credit channel by using nonlinear methods. This research, using time series information of Iran's economy, to assess the impact of credit channel in Iran's economy by  Markov Switching Vector Auto Regression approach (MS-VAR) and using seasonal data for the years 1990 to 2017. In general, the conclusion can be drawn that in boom period the effect of monetary policy shock leads to increase output growth by about 0.3 percent and then will be decreased till the end of the first year and again will be increased in season 5 by about 0.1 percent and subsequently will be disappeared. The effect of this shock during recession will increase output growth by about 0.1 percent and then decreased to the end of the first year. Again in season 5 output growth will be increased by about 0.05 percent and subsequently it will be disappeared till the end of the period. Also, credit shock leads to increase output growth by about 0.25 percent during boom period and then will be decreased. But, it is ineffective during recession. Results indicate that credit channel is effective during boom period but ineffective during recession. Furthermore, the effect of monetary policy on output through the credit channel during the boom period is more than the recession.

The aim of this study is to assess the effects of oil shocks on economic variables of Iran as an oil exporting country with a National Development Fund. For this purpose, in case that the government relies heavily on oil revenue, we provide a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model. In the following, we study two different policy for oil revenue volatility and provid a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model for policy A and B and estimate them. The results of the paper shows when the government saves its oil revenue in an oil fund and invests each period only the return from the fund plus a small additional fraction, the shock generates a milder and more long-lasting expansion, efectively insulating the economy from the volatility of oil prices.

Adverse selection appear when insured persons have information about their risk that is not observed by insurers. Under these circumstances, insurers are unable to identify customer risk and they are forced to offer the same contract based on the average of all their customers. It is clear that offering such a similar contract will be relatively more attractive to high-risk customers. In contrast, it is not very pleasant for customers who have less risk. This will gradually drive low-risk customers out of the insurance industry. The end result will be that such a situation will prevent a stable balance in the market and it allows the market to collapse completely. In the present study, the phenomenon of adverse selection, which is one of the side effects of asymmetric information, in the basic health insurance market in Iran, it has been studied and tested. To test the research hypothesis, that is, to confirm the existence of an adverse selection, household budget data between 1993 and 1994 have been used. Attempts have been made to make the model under the least parametric assumptions, to be able to test adverse selection in health insurance. Also, unlike all previous models, the uncertainty of repayment and its amount was considered in this model, which is much more consistent with reality. The results confirm the adverse selection in health insurance, health care and social security in Iran.

In this paper, we show that the output of economic sectors is not an appropriate criterion for assessing the importance of sectors. First, in the context of Leontief quantity model, each sector has two tasks: satisfying its direct and indirect final demand and also intermediate needs of other economic sectors. Many researchers observe that the sum of these leads to double counting. Second, the output of sectors is not an appropriate criterion for economic growth and welfare. To address these shortcomings, “product-to-product” approach is used, rooted in the theoretical basis of Serrafa’s production system. Pasinetti modified it as a vertical integration of production in the form of Leontief’s input-output model as an alternative method for assessing the importance of sectors. In this paper, we use this approach to answer following question, “The service sector, which has a 83% share of GDP in the city of Tehran, how much potentially does it generate indirect value added in other economic sector”? The input-output table of Tehran city which has recently been calculated as a research plan is used to quantitatively analysis of the posed question. The overall findings indicate that: first, the vertical integration index of service sector is only 0.04 units, which means that it generates only 4 units of indirect value added in the other economic sectors. Second, the vertical integration indices of four sectors of distribution services, productive services, social services and personal services are 0.08, 0.08, 0.46 and 0.40, respectively, all of them are less than 1 unit.

The Cobb Douglas production function was used in most economic growth models as production technology (Which has elasticity of substitution equal one). In this research, the Ramsy growth model is extended with CES production function (production function with constant elasticity of substitution, not one). After solving the optimal control problem, the optimal trajectory of economic variables (production and capital) is calculated in steady state for Iranian economy. The results show that production and capital are significantly lower than the steady state level. One of the innovations of this paper is to investigate the effect of elasticity of substitution on optimal trajectory of economic variables as well as economic growth in steady state. The results indicate the elasticity of substitution will have a negative impact on the growth in steady state. Theoretical results of the research show that assuming elasticity of substitution equal one, the technology growth rate is not significant effect on the economic growth rate in the long run. But given elasticity of substitution below one, the steady growth rate of production will depend on technology and population growth rates. Therefore, specifically considering the CES production function rather than the Cob Douglas in the growth model would have quite different results. Also in this research was calculated the economic growth rate for Iranian economies equal 6.9 percent. Other results show that the production realized for Iran had not been in steady state trajectory and Iranian economy is in deep recession in 2018.we show that the reason of this recession is decreasing of investment.

One of the major requirements for increasing the competitiveness among the range of export goods in global markets is to equip financial markets in terms of development and supply of financial resources required to strengthen and foster export activities, given the fact that firms involved in the international trade arena have access to a wide variety of export financing methods which puts them at an advantage over domestic exporters. So failure to acknowledge this issue may give rise to serious constrains in the development and growth of non-petroleum exports. Financing of export activities in the form of financial arrangements, insurance and guarantee, with regards to the level of business and non-business risks is carried out through government institutions in two forms of export financing before and after the shipment of goods. The surveys indicated that, however, there are multiple challenges in structural (based institutional framework), behavioral (export financing function) and environment (out of the firm control) in non-petroleum export finance. Due to the difference in scope of effecting, and the costs of each solution related to these challenges, the main purpose of this article is to offer and prioritize a set of solutions addressing the most important challenges faced by non-petroleum export finance in the mentioned axis. Hence in this study, a questionnaire containing offering policy solutions is arranged and handed out to some 45 policy makers in the Export and Financing domain. After Confirming the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, prioritizing the solutions is conducted through the statistical analysis and the TOPSIS method. As a result, the most important and the most prioritized policy options for non-oil export financing are related to the behavioral factor and include increasing the working capital of export units; increasing the Export Development Bank and Export Guarantee Fund of Iran capital from resources provided by the government; creating and expanding of low-cost export credit lines from the Central Bank to the Export Development Bank of Iran; and cutting commissions on export credits, guarantees and insurance policies.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting the structural and cyclical budget balance using Quartery data during the period of 1996-2017. Fristly, the factors affecting the cyclical and structural budget balance are identified using Sissokoand Dibooglu (2006) and inspired by Chalk (2002). Then, using the EU methodology, we will focus on the cyclical and structural components of the budget. Finally, by using SVAR Approach. The effect of effective shocks; such as   Taxes, government expenditures,GDP per capita, oil prices, inflation and terms of trade; on cyclical and structural budget deficits is investigated. According to research results, the oil prices shoks and current government expenditures are two variables that increase the adoption of discretionary decisions by governments and, consequently, the growth of structural budget deficits and the reduction of the power of influence of automatic stabilizers in the Iranian economy. And the shocks such as GDP per capita growth, inflation, investment government expenditure, and terms of trade have led to a reduction in structural deficit and increasing in the power of influence of automatic stabilizers in Iran.

Poverty reduction is one of the main goals of policies pursued by governments. At the same time, economic growth and a strong belief in growth along with justice have always been of interest to policymakers. In this regard, the concept of pro poor growth focuses on the interaction between three elements: growth, poverty and inequality. On the other hand, pro poor growth is affected by several factors including macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables including government expenditures, transfers, liquidity, openness, oil revenue and external debt on pro poor growth during the period of 1982-2015. For this aim, first, we calculate pro poor growth index and then by using the time series data of desired macroeconomic variables and by ARDL model we estimate that relationship. The results show that all macroeconomic variables, except transfers and openness, have a negative and significant effect. In other words, by increasing liquidity, external debt, oil revenues and government expenditure, the share of poor people from economic growth will be less than the rich. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should change the path of economic growth by improving infrastructure and increasing social spending in the field of education and health, as well as directing liquidity towards productive and employment activities and allocating oil revenues to improve the infrastructures so the benefits of the poor will be more than the rich from economic growth, and the goal of reducing poverty and inequality would be achieved. Also, in spite of the positive effect of transfers and the openness of the economy on pro poor growth, it is suggested that the accurate identification of poor people and the targeting of subsidies, as well as the removal of barriers of free trade and membership of the WTO, along with the establishment of appropriate infrastructures and institutions, will increase the effectiveness of these macroeconomic variables.

The present paper addresses the long-run and causality relationship between financialization and income inequality in the macroeconomic level of Iran during the period of 2002-2018. By collecting required data, the relationship and causality between three financialization indicators (financial value added as total economy value added, financial employment as total economy employment, and market capitalization as share of GDP) along with unemployment rate, inflation rate and trade openness and Gini coefficient, as an indicator of income inequality, has been investigated. Using ARDL bounds testing approach, cointegration analysis was performed and then causality between financialization indices and income inequality is tested using Toda-Yamamoto approach. Findings of the research show that there exists a long-run relationship between considered variables when income inequality variable is utilized as dependent variable. Also, there is a unidirectional causality from financialization indicators to income inequality. This result verifies the results obtained by other researches in this field. However, because of limitation of this study to access data, the effect of financialization indices to income inequality is not estimated. It is suggested to researchers do the same study by focus on financialization phenomenon in micro level and longer period of time.