فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 103 (پاییز 1401)

The main objective of this study is to assess the economic impacts of sanctions against Iran. This analysis was performed using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on exports, imports, production, and price levels. After calibrating the CGE model and measuring the values of exogenous parameters and variables, the study assessed the economic impacts of sanctions on Iran’s economy using the 2016 input-output table (IOT) and other statistical information based on scenario building. The results obtained using GAMS 34 and through two scenarios revealed that the import sanctions have had more severe economic impacts on Iran’s economy than the export sanctions, reducing economic growth by 6.72 and 9.87% and increasing the general level of production costs by 23.6 and 29.46% in the first and second scenarios, respectively. The export sanctions also led to an economic growth by 2.05 and 4.55% and increased the general level of production costs by 2.03 and 4.5% in the first and second scenarios, respectively. It is noteworthy that the general level of prices reduced in the export sanctions, which is consistent with the theoretical analysis.

Oil-exporting countries often escalate macroeconomic fluctuations by adopting cyclical fiscal policies. Empirical evidence shows that the main reason of instability in oil-exporting countries is the poor management of oil. In this study, after introducing a small open macroeconomic model with a dual managed floating exchange rate regime and estimating it using quarterly macroeconomic data of Iran, five fiscal rules, balanced budget rule (BBR), counter cyclical rule (CCR), structural surplus rule (SSR), government expenditure rule (EXR) and government revenue rule (INR) were introduced. To select the appropriate fiscal rule for Iran, two approaches are used: loss function and Bayes ratio approaches. The results show that both statistical and welfare criteria confirm that the appropriate rule for the Iranian economy is the SSR financial rule. In other words, because the bulk of government revenue comes from oil sales, following a structural budget surplus rule minimizes the negative effects of sharp fluctuations in oil, and the government budget is much better balanced. Also, a single-float managed exchange rate system, along with the selected fiscal rule, leads to higher social welfare.

Multidimensional poverty is a complex issue that is affected by various factors. Therefore, accurate knowledge and its comprehensive definition are great important. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of economic, social and institutional factors on multidimensional poverty based on a comprehensive measurement framework and using the beta linear mixed regression model, which is a suitable for response variables in the range (0,1). The parameters are calculated with the Bayesian approach. The Multidimensional Poverty Index has been calculated using the Multiple-Indicator Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and the Alkier-Foster method. In the group of economic factors affecting multidimensional poverty, four variables of inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic participation rate and net rate of provincial immigrants, in the group of social factors, two variables, level of development and urbanization, and in the group of institutional factors, three variables of crimes and the number of people supported by social harms, and the level of satisfaction of the administrative apparatus are considered for modeling. The results showed that both economic and social factors affect the multidimensional poverty index. Inflation rate and urbanization rate affect the average and unemployment rate affect the variance of multidimensional poverty among provinces

Due to its inherent role in ensuring food security and as one of the productive sectors of the economy, the agricultural sector has a priority in receiving preferential currency. Having a preferred currency has caused the price of this commodity in the market to be multi-valued. On the other hand, the allocation of billions of dollars at a price lower than the free market price of foreign exchange to imports makes the percentage of the effect of the preferred currency on the price of commodities more important. In such circumstances, it must be determined whether the allocation of preferential or bank currency (42000Rials) to sugar has been able to be transferred to the final price of this commodity. To answer this question, time series data with monthly frequency of domestic sugar prices, official exchange rates and world prices during the years 2011: 03-2019:11 and the nonlinear pattern of Markov MSIAH regime change have been used. The results showed that during the period 2011:03-2019:11, the average monthly growth rate of the price of this product was equal to 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, during the period of implementation of the preferential exchange rate policy, the average monthly price growth rate was equal to 2.7 percent. The results also show that in the short run, the exchange rate pass-through to sugar price in the second regime was significant and equal to 5%. In the long run, the exchange rate pass-through in this regime was equal to six percent.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the type and extent of tax evasion relationship with hidden economy. Based on the theoretical foundations and background of studies, influential and influential variables on tax evasion and hidden economy were identified and then based on Panel-MIMIC structural methodology for the period 2011-2018 in 30 selected provinces and using ML estimator, the relationship between these two variables Was modeled. Due to the similarity of influential variables on tax evasion and hidden economy, the selected model was analyzed as a system of simultaneous equations. The results showed that although the hidden economy has a positive relationship with tax evasion, the causality of tax evasion on the hidden economy has a larger coefficient, which indicates that tax evasion is more on the hidden economy than the similar effect of the hidden economy on tax evasion. It has an effect. Other research shows that income and profit taxes, GDP per capita and government size have a positive effect on tax evasion and open economy has a negative effect on tax evasion. It was also found that with the increase of tax evasion, income distribution becomes more unequal and the labor force participation rate of the economy decreases.

The main purpose of this study is to identify and investigate the factors affecting the credit risk of knowledge-based companies located in Science and Technology Parks of Semnan province and to present an appropriate model. The statistical population of the study includes all 68 knowledge-based companies of Semnan province that have been active in Science and Technology Parks of Semnan province during 2016, 2017 and 2018. For this purpose, the logit Regression Model with a qualitative dependent variable with zero value for non-deferred companies (risk-free) and one for companies with deferred (risky) with 6 explanatory variables including variables of concentration ratio, company history, type of documents, history of borrowing, history of returned checks and profitability were proposed and introduced. The source of data collection of dependent variable and explanatory variables, other than the concentration ratio, is the integrated inquiry system of Central Bank. Also, to calculate the concentration ratio variable, using the microdata of Iran's industrial sector in the years under study, the concentration ratio of 5 firms in terms of employment by two-digit industry codes (ISIC) was estimated by fitting the lognormal parametric model. Then, the structure of the industry was identified and the position of the studied companies in this structure was determined. Finally, with the help of Eviews software, all variables were entered into the model and fitted. According to the results, the variables of concentration ratio, type of collateral and profitability have a significant negative effect on credit risk; That is, by increasing each of these variables, assuming the other variables remain constant, the probability of facility deferral or credit risk decreases. Also, the variables of returned checks history, borrowing history and company history with a positive and significant effect, have the greatest impact on increasing credit risk. Out of 68 knowledge-based companies in Semnan province, 45 companies are in the structure of monopoly competition, 2 companies are in the structure of multilateral monopoly and 21 companies are in the structure of full competition.

In recent centuries, many natural disasters such as floods and droughts have appeared and have had many adverse effects on many countries. Natural disaster is one of the major environmental challenges in the world and has serious socioeconomic consequences in countries. Evidence points to the fact that these natural disasters have a significant negative impact on crop yield, food security, there is a need to conduct micro-level studies that help generate empirically evidence on the effect of such disasters on the indicators of households demand in developing countries. Iran is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. Natural disasters frequently impact it and cause devastating damage. Depending on their intensity and duration, these disasters can impact consumer demand. Therefore, this study examines the effects of floods on food and non-food demand in Iran from 2019 to 2020. For this purpose, ‌the EASI demand system model was used to analyze. The data were obtained from the Statistical Center of  Iran and covered urban and rural households in five provinces of Fars, Khuzestan, Mazandaran, Lorestan, and Golestan. The results show that households who experience the shock of floods reduce food, energy, and hotel and restaurant demand while increasing transportation, home appliance, and health demand.

The economic literature has scrutinized financial development from various dimensions; In this regard, what is important about bank-based financial systems is the distribution of facilities granted between economic sectors. In fact, in non-competitive markets, with the feature of incomplete and incomplete information, any distribution of facilities based on maximizing the profits of banks does not necessarily lead to the maximization of collective resources and can have consequences for society as a whole. With regard to this issue, the present article seeks to investigate the role of distribution of banking facilities among sectors of the economy on economic growth in Iran. For this purpose, using the time series data of 1370-1398 and the self-correlation method with distributed interrupt (ARDL) has been used. The results show that the logarithm coefficient of the financial development index (ratio of total facilities to GDP) in the short and long term is positive and significant, which indicates the positive role of development in economic growth. On the other hand, the logarithm coefficient of the residual ratio of production facilities to non-production facilities has also been positive and significant in the short and long term, which shows the positive effect of production facilities. In other words, increasing bank facilities relative to (GDP) has a positive effect on economic growth, but the more the tendency of these facilities towards production facilities, the more positive economic growth will be affected.

Certainly any investor in the housing sector will turn their attention to geographically densely populated areas. In contrast to the behavior of private housing investors, the government and the central bank, as the most effective policy-making institutions in the field of finance and monetary affairs, have a duty to balance the comprehensive development of housing between the provinces of the country. According to studies, the action of the Housing Bank in the distribution of housing priority bonds is fully consistent with population density and housing. In other words, the facilities have shifted to the principles of wealth and capital، which are considered as inappropriate policies to create a comprehensive balance in the provinces and have caused a gap in the provinces that do not have housing in the field of housing supply. In this study, an attempt has been made to calculate the housing supply gap in disadvantaged provinces. The study period is from 2007-2020 and the sections include disadvantaged provinces (South Khorasan, Ilam, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, North Khorasan, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Kurdistan, Lorestan and Yazd). The method of data analysis is spatial panel. The results of the research confirm the existence of housing supply gap in disadvantaged provinces. According to these results, to compensate for the shortage of housing supply in disadvantaged provinces, the supply of housing priority bonds should increase between 73% and 304%.

Energy as one of the factors of production along with labor and capital has an important role in development and social welfare. Due to the pollution of non-renewable resources and its negative impact on welfare, the use of renewable resources can improve social welfare by eliminating pollutants. In this study, the effect of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on social welfare of developing Asian countries in the period 2007-2018 has been investigated using the quantile panel approach. Findings show that the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy increases welfare and has a positive and significant effect on welfare, although the impact factor of renewable energy consumption is much larger than the impact factor of non-renewable energy consumption. So that the impact factor of renewable energy consumption in the initial deciles is higher than the final deciles. Also, the effect of other variables such as environmental performance index, employment rate, gross capital formation on welfare is positive and significant and the effect of CO2 pollution on welfare is negative and significant.