فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 107 (پاییز 1402)

The present study examines the relationship between inflation and exchange rate jumps, taking into account the index of the central bank's intervention degree and using Dornbush launch model and using Star's soft logistic transfer model (LSTR) for the period from 1986 to 2020. The estimation results of the linear part of the model (the first regime) and the nonlinear part of the model (the second regime) show that the variables of oil price, exchange rate jump, degree of central bank intervention and money volume have a positive relationship with inflation in Iran's economy, which with the transition from the linear regime Non-linearly, the speed of transmission and the effect of variables have increased. So that for one unit increase in oil price and exchange rate jump, the inflation rate has increased by 5 units and 21 units respectively. In other words, the increase in oil revenues has led to an increase in inflation in the country. Also, the value of the estimated threshold limit for the variable of currency jump transmission was equal to 0.13. By comparing the coefficients of the model in two different regimes, it can be seen that when the growth of the exchange rate exceeds the threshold (0.13), the reaction of the monetary authorities to the changes of this variable has greatly increased, so that the higher the growth of the exchange rate, Policymakers have tried to control the growth of the exchange rate and prevent its increase by reacting more to it. Also, the average amount of central bank intervention shows that the central bank intervention policy has not played an effective role in neutralizing the pressure of the currency market. The reason for this is that in Iran's single-product economy; it is the main supplier of government currency. The central bank is also responsible for financing the government budget. Therefore, foreign exchange intervention in the market is mainly done in order to provide Rial resources to the government budget.

Goods smuggling as a branch of the informal economy has destructive effects on social and economic development in developing countries. The most significant negative impact of smuggling on the economy is the decline in economic growth. Also, goods smuggling increases unemployment due to unequal competition with legal and official activities. Therefore, investigating the determinants of goods smuggling is very vital. The performance of policymakers through monetary and fiscal policies is one of the factors that can play a considerable role in controlling or expanding smuggling: while the issue has been examined in experimental studies less than other issues. Therefore, this research seeks to investigate the impact of monetary and financial policies on goods smuggling from 1998 to 2021 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and Seasonal data. The results of the research showed that in the short term, the coincidence of expansionary monetary and financial policies leads to an increase in smugglingIn the long run, expansionary fiscal policy causes to increase in smuggling, but expansionary monetary policy lead to a reduction in smuggling. Increasing exchange rate, political and economic risks also increase smuggling in the short run and the long run, increasing of exchange rate and economic risk lead to an increase in smuggling, but increasing of political risk leads to a decrease in smuggling. Therefore, it is suggested that considering the direct impact of monetary and financial policies on smuggling, they should follow the central bank's independence in providing policy packages and correct targeting.

The headquarter of facilitation and elimination of production barriers has been working since 2016  supporting the production sector in Iran in reference to the articles 61 and 62 of the law of eliminating production barriers, - in each province in form of a committee- some responsibilities and authorities of this headquarters are to make the right decisions to finance the production units properly, especially the unfinished projects, cooperating the agent banks, if those units have been approved by the bank and the corresponding committee based on  technical and  financial plans, and economic feasibility studies. The performance evaluation of the corresponding committee in Qazvin Province from 2016 to 2020 depicts that there is a considerable deviation amid the selected applications approved by the committee and the ones financed by the banking system, although  the banking system has refused to pay the financial facilities to 44 percent of the approved applications ( 58 % in terms of the amount of facilities). Hence,  the the committee 's approvals are obligatory for all executive bodies and service companies and banks in compliance with the prevailing laws. This study aims to identify and classify the reasons behind the refusal of the Agent Banks to implement the facilitation and elimination of production barriers committee’s approvals in the industry sector of Qazvin Province. Therefore, the reasons have been identified and ranked by collaborating 15 experts in the industrial production banking and government sectors using TOPSIS method and  the Delphi method. The Results illusterate that the unstable situation of the macroeconomics and the lack of technical, financial, and economic feasibility study for economic plans considered as the most important reasons behind the refusal of Qazvin province banking system to implement the facilitation and elimination of production barriers committee’s approvals.

Civil conflict risk shows the possibility of armed confrontation with the government in its various forms. This research tried to investigate the factors affecting on the civil conflict risk with an Emphasis on the natural resource abundance and interactive effects in 87 countries of the world during the period of 2000-2018 using the dynamic panel data approach. Experimental results using System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) show that the effect of natural resource abundance on the civil conflict risk is positive and significant, and this effect is negative and significant for indicators of institutional quality, militarization and decentralization. Also, the positive effect of the natural resource abundance on the civil conflict risk decreases in the presence of good institutions and militarization and increases with the application of decentralization policy. According to other results, the variables of per capita income and the share of arable land from the total area of the country have a negative and significant effect, and population and religious and racial tensions have a positive and significant effect on the civil conflict risk in the studied countries.

Government revenues are a source of financing and a tool for financial policies to achieve economic goals. Fluctuations and instabilities of this income cause the government to rely on an uncertain source in planning and face problems in achieving programmatic and long-term goals. Therefore, in the present study, the impact of the instability of government revenues on the financing of Iran's economic growth in the period of 1990-2020 is investigated using the non-linear auto-regression method with explanatory intervals. The results of the study show that the results of the study show that financial development in a linear model has a positive effect on economic growth, as well as positive and negative shocks of financial development in a non-linear model have a positive effect on economic growth, but the negative shocks of the first break of financial development have a negative effect has been in economic growth. On the other hand, in the long-term pattern, positive and negative shocks of financial development had positive effects on economic growth, and negative shocks of the first interruption of financial development had a negative effect on economic growth. Also, considering the different effects of positive and negative financial development shocks in the short and long term, it can be seen that the financial development shocks had asymmetric effects.

Linked banking is one of the methods of providing microfinance, which aims to expand the reach of target groups to microfinance services with the aim of financial linkage between official financial organizations (commercial and government banks) and local financial groups. The purpose of this research is the pathology of the implementation of link banking in the Iranian banking system. For this purpose, this research using library research method, field studies, interviews with experts, managers and experts of the banking industry and using the SWOT factor analysis method in 1401, the weaknesses, strengths, opportunities and threats of using linked banking has been extracted in Iran and then, related strategies were formulated and analyzed by ranking and weighting indicators and prioritizing strategies. The results of the research indicate that the best strategy for implementing linked banking in Iran is an aggressive strategy; it means that the proposed strategies in this dimension are proposed with the aim of using the strengths to exploit the opportunities. According to the results of the research, it is suggested that more connections should be established between microfinance institutions and academic and research centers so that by coordinating the necessary experience transfer, users of microcredits can produce goods and services in line with the needs of the market.

Foreign investment has many positive effects on the host countries. Attracting foreign investment through technology transfer and increasing competitiveness in the business environment probably lead to increasing economic growth and reducing poverty. Developing countries have always been trying to attract more foreign investment by providing the necessary conditions and increasing their competitiveness. In this regard, the governments of these countries have used various initiatives such as signing bilateral investment treaties as a reliable tool to encourage and promote foreign investment. This study has been compiled with the aim of investigating the impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign investment in Iran. To achieve this purpose, the gravity model approach and the panel data model in the period of 2002 to 2020 have been used. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between signing bilateral investment treaties and the attraction of foreign investment in Iran. Because the sanctions imposed against Iran foreign investment inflows to Iran have significantly reduced. In addition, there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the variables of the existence of common language, as well as the real GDP of the home countries and the attraction of foreign investment in Iran

Tax revenues are one of the most important sources of government income and provide a major part of its expenses. The main goal of this research is which of the decision tree algorithm and linear multivariate regression methods provides a better prediction of tax evasion of legal taxpayers. Based on the theoretical foundations and background studies of a set of variables including 57 financial and non-financial indicators at three macroeconomic levels, taxpayers and tax auditors, in a sample consisting of 964 cases of legal entities at the level of the Mazandaran General Administration of Tax Affairs for the years 2012 to 2019 with The use of Python and Stata software has been investigated. At first, the sine-cosine identification algorithm was used to select the influencing variables. The results of the data analysis showed that the variables at the level of taxpayers and tax auditors are more effective in predicting tax evasion. Also, the findings indicate that the predictive power of the decision tree algorithm is higher than the linear multivariate regression