پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هفدهم شماره 36 (زمستان 1401)

The relationship between economic variables is one of the most important topics in economic literature. Investigating the effect of global oil prices and metal prices on the increase in food prices in recent years has attracted the attention of policymakers and economic researchers as well. Therefore, by using Markov-switching models, this article analyzes food, oil and gold cycles. It determines the correlation between the cycles in question in the period from 1995 to 2022. Based on the results, the correlation between food prices, gold prices and oil prices is positive. Also, the relationship between food prices and gold prices in regime zero (boom) and between food prices and oil prices in regime one (recession) has a more vital link. In oil price models, the length of increasing periods is longer than decreasing periods, but in gold models, it is the opposite. According to the results of the estimated models and the related method, this article indicates the meaningful relationship between the economic variables in the period in question. Hence, considering the relationship between food prices on the one hand and oil and gold prices on the other hand, the results of this article does have significant implication both for the public and private sectors.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the important economic factors affecting the exchange rate pass-through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Iran during the period 1993 to 2020. In this regard, by using the two methods of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and weighted average least squares (WALS), which have been widely considered in recent years, the important factors affecting the exchange rate transition and the order of importance of these variables in Iran are determined, as well as, Random Forest (RF) algorithm has been used to determine the importance and ranking of identified factors.The results of BMA and WALS methods indicate that the variables of government size, level of development, economic uncertainty, and economic conditions are among the most important macroeconomic factors affecting the exchange rate. According to the research findings, controlling the effects of the exchange rate increase on consumer prices (exchange rate pass-through), reducing the size of the government, controlling economic uncertainties, improving economic conditions, and improving the level of development is an inevitable necessity in Iran, Therefore, The most important policy recommendations of this research are to control the effects of the exchange rate increase on the consumer price index in Iran

Several factors such as productivity, per capita income, and oil income effective on the real exchange rate. In addition to examining the factors mentioned above, this article examines the change in taste of Iranian consumers from domestic to foreign goods and its effect on the real exchange rate. For this purpose, a theoretical model of consumer behavior, which is a utility function including domestic and foreign goods, has been presented and linked to the real exchange rate. Then, using time series regression with the implicit trend and state space technique, the effect of taste on the real exchange rate has been estimated dynamically during the years 1974 to 2021. The result of the estimation shows that the effect of taste has dynamically reduced the real exchange rate so that the width from the regression's origin has decreased yearly. Also, the effect of productivity and per capita income on the real exchange rate is significant, but the effect of oil income is not significant. The practical results show during the last 47 years, the tastes of the Iranian people have tended to consume foreign commercial goods with a mild trend, and this has been one of the causes of the real value of the national currency.

Taxation is one of the issues that are considered by various organizations and society and tax avoidance is a kind of use of legal gaps in tax laws to reduce taxes; the purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting tax avoidance using a hybrid approach (Metasynthesis). For this purpose, this research in 2022 with a qualitative approach and meta-synthesis tools, has systematically evaluated and analyzed the results and findings of previous research. In this study, a total of 170 articles were extracted and reviewed, and after analyzing the components, 52 articles were finalized. Findings of this study led to the identification of dual dimensions in the form of 30 variables including extra-organizational and extra-organizational factors. Finally, using the Shannon quantitative entropy method, based on the content analysis approach, the effect coefficients of the components identified in the finalized research were determined. Findings showed that the most important indicators affecting corporate tax evasion are concentration of ownership, percentage of dividends and tax reputation; Factors such as inefficiency of labor investment; Social responsibility and the size of the auditing firm have the lowest rank; This means that among the various models and researches studied, less attention has been paid to these issues and their reproducibility.

Income inequality is one of the most important and stable problems in societies, and neglecting this issue can have many negative effects. Nowadays, financial inclusion as a factor affecting income inequality has attracted the attention of financial institutions and policymakers. The literature related to financial inclusion, especially in developing countries, is still in the early stages. This research investigates the effect of financial inclusion on income inequality in 18 selected developing countries in the period of 2005-2019 using panel data model. Since financial inclusion is a multi-dimensional concept with different indicators in each dimension, this study examines the two dimensions of access and usage separately. Also, the effect of the variables including inflation, economic growth, unemployment and trade openness has been investigated. The results indicate that financial inclusion has a negative and significant effect on income inequality both in terms of access and usage, and expanding financial inclusion helps to reduce income inequality. In both dimensions inflation has a negative effect on income inequality and show that the increase of this variable causes income inequality to decrease. The coefficients of the GDP, unemployment and trade openness are positive and this shows that the increase of each of these variables increases inequality.

The goal of this paper is to investigate the effect of education on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The EKC hypothesis states that the relationship between per capita income and air pollution follows an inverted U-shaped curve. At the initial stages of development, as per capita income increases, so does air pollution due to rapid economic growth and lack of attention to the environment. However, after reaching a threshold level of per capita income and increasing societal welfare, clean air becomes a demand for a healthy life. This leads to increased attention towards pollution control and environmental protection, resulting in a decrease in air pollution beyond a certain level of per capita income. The results of this research, which examined developing and developed countries using the threshold panel method from 1990-2016, confirm the existence of the EKC in these countries. The study also found that education plays a significant role in reducing pollution levels in these communities. At initial stages of development, education is not widespread enough to prevent society from the dangers of pollution. However, with improved development and educational systems - particularly higher education - environmental issues become a priority for society and political authorities. This leads to intensified policies for pollution control and environmental protection resulting in decreased pollution levels on the downward part of the EKC.