فصلنامه دانش پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران
سال دوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 5، پاییز 1391)

The importance of earthquake hazard in Tehran with intense of urban expansion process, the concentration of population, material and spiritual assets and threat to the earthquake crisis, is felt more than before. Earthquake early warning systems could be considered as an effective tool for reducing the vulnerability of Tehran. Due to the introduction of accelerometer systems with the real-time data, Tehran disaster mitigation and management organization (TDMMO) has provided the necessary facilities for the implementation and installation of early warning systems and assessment of the potential and effectiveness of this system in Tehran. In this study with a general overview on earthquake early warning system and its types in the world, estimating how large earthquakes based on real-time data as rapid estimation of earthquake source parameters in the first few seconds of receiving the initial wave, has introduced the case for the 2009 Shahr- e-Rey earthquake in Tehran. The logical relationship between the frequency and the seismic intensity of 2009 Shar-e-ray earthquake, shows that early warning system for earthquakes is possible in Tehran. Due to the tectonically dominant conditions of Tehran and its geographical demography in relation to faults distribution in Tehran, using early warning system with initial P wave is recommended.

Decreasing the losses caused by earthquakes in order to increase seismic resistance, is mainly focused on construction methods of buildings. But coping with earthquake is beyond the technical principles for earthquakeresistant buildings and in fact the entire city should be planned to reduce vulnerability to the earthquakes. This study seeks to find the common aspects of the renovation, urban planning and disaster management. Access to this method is the most important goal of this study. The research method used in this study is case study done through analysis and induction. At first, it studied the old urban texture and the theory of urban planning and strategic planning and then the gathered data from urban organizations were analyzed using the SWOT technique. Burnout of urban contexts and renovation in urban areas has provided a proper opportunity to perform urban development plans which can be considered simultaneously with the disaster management measures and reducing vulnerability. Suggestions for organizing and urban development on regional scale were finally recommended.

The nature is full of phenomena that when exceed the balance condition, change to hazards which threatens humans and properties, creating risk followed by critical conditions. Gradual formation process of hazards in nature and society leaves no room for skipping hazard and risk analysis. Lack of attention to these gradual changes with sudden occurrence, leads to fast changes from emergency condition to critical condition due to prompt occurrence of the events known as unpredicted accidents. In this paper, three conditions of normal, emergency and critical and their relevant managements are classified, using modified balance theory in disaster management. Flood in Tehran and the water flow in Tehran subway tunnels, was discussed using the management classification. The root cause of quick changes of emergency condition of water channel damage to the critical condition of water flow in subway tunnels was due to unsuitable risk management during normal conditions. The weakness of risk management and emergency management were replaced by the strengths and experiences of crisis management from this event. Lack of attention to the gradual changes of conditions from normal to critical, and unsuitable enhancement of the relevant managements of these three conditions, leads to similar crisis.

The developed countries’ experiences in the last decade show that the emergence of new media, especially for communication during disasters, had effective role among managerial factors. New media, known as “Citizen Media,” has been shaped and is established by the Internet and its applications. This new media let the people participate more and be better collaborators in disaster management. The main propose of this paper is to find practical and useful recommendations for using information technology and new media for disaster communication management in Iran based on world and national experiences. This paper is based on the studies done in big disaster around the world, and mainly in USA. Studies show that information technology and its application, mainly the role of new media are the main axis for successful disaster management. Study of recent natural disasters in Iran, for example in East Azerbaijan earthquake on 12 Augest 2012, has shown that the main challenge for managing disaster was lack of communication between anchorites during disasters, which in turn have brought about different exceptations among disaster-stricken people. Lack of coordination between different authorities and different voices among them in disaster management of Azerbaijan earthquake was due to unsuitable use of new technologies for communication during the disaster. The new media used for timely notification had effective role in prevention of disaster outcomes, response to disasters and post-disaster reconstruction. Therefore, disaster communications using new media, is extremely important to be effective in emergency management for spreading accurate and timely information to the disaster-stricken people, high national officials and relevant managers, non-government social groups, and traditional media.

The main goal of this study is to assess the Tehran citizens’ attitude toward earthquake magnitude and intensity in Tehran and explain the relationship between this attitude and the level of preparation of citizens against possible earthquakes. In this regard, at first an overview of the results obtained from a poll, its intensity and the level of preparation and the action undertaken by the respondents in the face of possible earthquakes, have been investigated. From the view of Tehran citizens, Tehran’s earthquake is such an awful and devastating earthquake that the preventive actions in this field will be ineffective. About the intensity of a possible earthquake in Tehran, how far away is citizens’ attitude from the true magnitude and intensity of a possible earthquake in Tehran; and based on the theory of rational action, this is the source of indifference and lack of practical actions to deal with the earthquake.

Australia faced with a sudden and devastated flooding in the Queensland State, in January 2011. The evidence indicates that despite of its magnitude and scale, the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) responded and controlled well the flooding impact. This case study analyses the process of the flash flooding, as well as, disaster management within the Queensland State and describes its success of failures. A number of criteria were recognized as the key factors for success, such as: incident command system, relatively low population in the disaster area, effective and on time relief, search and rescue, bilateral trust between people and authorities and ready emergency evacuation plans within the prone flood sites. An effective co-operations and coordination between the incident command system and the related relief agencies, as well as, the bilateral rust between the local people and the authorities were the most significant criteria for the success of the operation.

Many cities have rivers running through them, and the interactions are complex and two-way. In general, the city has squeezed the river, altering its morphology and reducing its capacity to deliver ecosystem services, as well as adding excess runoff and diffuse pollution loads. River flooding damages the city in return. However, there are many potential benefits in both directions. By good management, the city and its people can gain aesthetic and recreational opportunities, increased land values and economic development in river corridors. These can justify and support investment in the river itself, enhancing the returns. However, creating good management structures is challenging due to the complexity of the issues and the fact that all the organisations involved have other interests which complete for their attention and resources. The priorities of organisations such as local government, environmental protection agencies, commercial enterprises and citizen groups are unlikely to coincide. We explore several management options, and conclude that partnership working is most likely to be successful because it requires organisations to pool their resources, powers and skills and negotiate compromises between the competing issues.