آرش دوراندیش

Farmers are under increasing pressure to use fewer pesticides for production and pest control. Farmers and other producers are responding to consumer concerns about pesticides by creating new marketing opportunities for products grown with environmentally friendly practices. The purpose of this study is to estimate consumers' willingness to pay for each of the information provided in the "Protective Agriculture Label" and determine the factors affecting consumers' willingness to pay. The two conservation agriculture labels designed in this study are the "How to Cultivate" label and the "Environmental Damage" label. The cultivation method label provides information about the raw materials used to produce the product, while the environmental damage label provides information about the environmental harm caused during the production process. The purpose of this study is to estimate consumers' willingness to pay for each type of information provided on the conservation agriculture labels and to determine the factors affecting consumers' willingness to pay.

 In this study, in order to analyze consumers' preferences for protective agricultural products in Mashhad, the choice experiment method was used, and conditional logit models and logit with random parameters were used to estimate its parameters. Choice experiment is a common tool for valuing environmental functions and services. The required information was obtained by completing 170 questionnaires from the consumers of Mashhad city. The analysis of collected data is done using many models, most of which have a logit form. In this study, conditional logit and logit models with random parameters have been used to investigate the effect of the characteristics of agricultural product labels on consumers' willingness to pay and to estimate the amount of willingness to pay for each of the characteristics. 

In this article, consumer preferences for protective agricultural products have been analyzed using the choice test method. For data analysis, conditional logit and logit with random parameters model were used. The results obtained from this study have shown that the characteristic accuracy of the measurement method was the highest and the label-issuing organization had the lowest willingness to pay. The variables of gender, the presence of a child in the family, and the presence of people with a specific disease in the family had a positive and significant effect, and the variable of age had a negative and significant effect on the willingness of consumers to pay. In both labels, the sign of the price variable is negative, which is in accordance with the theory of economic utility. The comparison of the calculated final effect for two labels of environment and method of cultivation has shown that, in general, the probability of choosing the label of method of cultivation is higher than the probability of choosing the label of environmental-biological damages.  In 53% of the cases, the selected option was the label of how to cultivate, and in 15% of the cases, none of the labels were selected. The amount of willingness of consumers to pay to obtain information about the way of cultivation and damage to the environment is very low. Even consumers willing to pay to obtain detailed information on production (such as the degree of water pollution with which the product was irrigated, the level of soil pollution in which the product was grown, and the type of poisons used) and environmental damage (such as contamination of groundwater with The reason for product production is not air pollution due to product production and global warming (increasing temperature due to product production). In this regard, more research is suggested in the field of reasons for the low willingness to pay of consumers.

Examining the willingness to pay of consumers has shown that people are willing to pay more for the accuracy of the measurement method than for the label-issuing organization. The amount of consumers' willingness to pay for the characteristics of the organization issuing the label and the accuracy of the measurement method were obtained as 5 and 17.04 Tomans, respectively, so it can be concluded that Accuracy is more important than an organization for consumers.

This study conducted an assessment to gauge the impact of reducing agricultural tariffs across diverse scenarios on both food security and macroeconomic variables in Afghanistan. Utilizing a computable general equilibrium model and Afghanistan's social accounting matrix data, the study simulated reductions in tariffs at 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, and a complete removal (100%) of tariffs (full liberalization). The findings unveiled a progressive uptick in imports and household consumption of key staples like cereals, fruits, vegetables, and livestock. Crucially, this surge in household purchasing power spurred a heightened demand for food items, consequently, bolstering food security and contributing positively to the overall health of the households and society. Therefore, advocating for targeted initiatives aimed at eliminating tariffs on agricultural products emerges as an imperative step, given their tangible impact on enhancing food security and uplifting societal well-being.

Nowadays, due to significant role of price fluctuations and asymmetric price transmission on the welfare of consumers and the failure of agricultural products market, the analysis of price transmission in agricultural markets is of great importance. In addition, given its important role in the food supply chain, the price of agricultural products directly affects the purchasing power of consumers and the food security of countries. One of the key factors affecting the price and market of agricultural products is the impact of domestic and imported product prices, which are influenced by global market trends, exchange rates, trade agreements and international competition, so that domestic product prices being lower compared to the imported ones, likely leading to a decrease in imports and providing a competitive advantage to domestic producers. Therefore, understanding the impact of domestic and imported product prices is very important for policymakers, farmers, consumers and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector.

Considering the importance of rice crop in the consumer's commodity basket and the high share of this product in the import of basic goods, this study aimed at investigating the price transmission in the levelsof imported and domestic prices of rice. The studied data included the weekly prices of the Central Bank of I.R. of Iran during 2022 and 2023; and to achieve the main objective of the study, the Error Correction Model (ECM) with Engel-Granger (EG) model within an approach of so-called ECM-EG were used. So, firstly, stationarity, cointegration and determination of causality between the variables were investigated and finally, to achieve the desired results based on the obtained results, the appropriate model was determined and estimated.

According to the obtained results, the examination of the equality of positive and negative coefficients of the imported rice price variable showed that in the short term, the symmetry test in the speed of price transmission was statistically significant, indicating that the increases and decreases in imported rice price changes were equally transmitted to the domestic rice price in all periods. In other words, the speed of price transmission from the level of imported rice to domestic rice prices would be symmetrical as well as in the short term, the increase and decrease of domestic rice prices would equally be transferred to the price of domestic rice. Therefore, based on the results obtained in the short term, the rice market has been performing well. The results related to the evaluation of the price transmission between imported and domestic rice, according to the null hypothesis based on the equality of positive and negative intercept coefficients of disturbance components using Wald's test, also showed that the coefficients were significantly different. So, considering the rejection of the null hypothesis proposing that there is symmetry in the price transmission from the imported to domestic rice price levels, the price transmission would be asymmetric in the long run. This asymmetric transmission of the price would be negative, indicating a stronger reaction of the domestic rice price to the decrease in the imported rice prices, compared to its increase.

Conclusion and Suggestions:

 The study results showed that in the short term, the rice market had a good efficiency and the price transmission between imported and domestic rice prices was symmetric. Therefore, it is suggested to avoid unnecessary intervention of the government in the market of this product; and considering the symmetrical transmission of the price in the short term, since the price regulation of the imported rice market can eventually lead to the same results in the domestic rice market, there will be no need for different policies to regulate prices in both imported and domestic rice markets. Also, based on the obtained results, according to the rejecting the null hypothesis, suggesting that there is symmetry in price transmission from the imported to domestic rice price levels, the price transmission was asymmetric in the long term. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to increase the transmission efficiency of interventions and policies of the government in the long term, while paying attention to the selection of appropriate policy tools in the periods of increasing and decreasing prices, there should never be planned those policies based on the market regulation in the same periods of increasing and decreasing prices.

The development of regional food hubs has become a strategic plan to secure the food system by improving local producers and hubs to connect local producers and consumers. In this regard, this study aimed at responding whether Iran's agricultural sector would have the necessary capacities to create regional hubs for the trade of agricultural commodities.

For this purpose, the production and export capacities of the horticultural products, which account for nearly half of Iran's agricultural exports, were analyzed. This study used five indices including Symmetric Revealed Comparative Advantage (SRCA), Lafay Index (LI), Concentration Ratio (CR), Efficiency Advantage Index (EAI), and relative import advantage to provide comprehensive results.

The study results showed that Iran had an advantage in exporting horticultural products and this advantage increased over time; in other words, Iran's competitiveness in exporting these products increased globally. According to the results, Iran's main trading partners, such as the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Türkiye, are among the largest importers of horticultural products, whose imports have advantages. Also, the markets of Iraq and Türkiye are highly dependent on Iran's exports, and Iran's competitiveness have increased in these markets.

Most of the regional countries (except Türkiye) are major importers of horticultural products and do not have the ability to produce competitively horticultural products, and Iran is the only country in the region that has common land and sea borders with the main importers of these products. Therefore, Iran should use this opportunity to create a regional hub by developing a business plan with a win-win policy approach as well as improving and developing legal and commercial structures and transit and customs infrastructures.

Groundwater is a vital resource for agriculture in arid regions which its over-extraction has led to significant challenges of declining water levels and increased scarcity. This study addresses the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management by employing an inclusive group decision-making approach involving diverse stakeholders, with a focus on farmers. Overlooking the participation of farmers in the decision-making approach led to ineffective policies. Utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, specifically the fuzzy Shannon entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques, the research prioritizes strategies for reducing groundwater consumption in the Safi-Abad region of North Khorasan, Iran. Qualitative data from stakeholder interviews provided insights into the challenges and opportunities related to groundwater use, revealing two primary strategies: (i) transitioning to low water-demand crops; and (ii) adopting modern irrigation systems. These approaches not only promise significant reductions in water usage but also support sustainable agricultural practices. The findings highlighted the importance of stakeholder collaboration in implementing effective water management policies, ensuring responsible resource use, and securing long-term viability. This study served as a model for future research, advocating for mixed methods integrating qualitative and quantitative analyses to inform policy recommendations and improve water resource management.

Considering the high importance of rice product in consumption basket of domestic consumers as well as its strategic role in Iran's economy, it is inevitable to pay attention to the type of supply and distribution as well as the design and formulation of the comprehensive structure of the value chain of this product in the country. Given the concerned approach, this study aimed at identifying, analyzing and investigating the current scientific situation and links related to rice value chains in the production hub provinces  including Guilan province to complete and develop or create an efficient value chain of rice product leading to increasing efficiency and competitiveness and following appropriate implementation solutions for the existing problems.

Considering the importance of rice as one of the most important products in the consumption basket of consumers in Iran, the present study focused on examining and choosing an optimal business model in the rice value chain in Guilan province. The statistical population of the study included active organizations, including all links of the chain and involved and related organizations. In addition, documentary and field methods were used in the form of questionnaires to collect the required information, and briefing sessions were held in a collaborative manner with 15 experts, specialists and the professionals related to rice production, export and industry in Guilan province. For this purpose, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to evaluate pairwise comparisons and Expert Choice (EC) software was used for its analysis. It should be mentioned that in order to reach the desired goal and determine the best business model based on the rice value chain in the province, four main criteria (economic, socio-cultural, environmental and structural) and 21 sub criteria were applied.

The study results showed that among the four criteria used, the economic criterion was the most important according to the respondents, and as the most important criterion with a weight of 0.578, it played the main role in choosing the best rice value chain model. The results also showed that if a decision was made based on each of the four main criteria including economic, socio-cultural, environmental and structural criteria components (each one alone), the market maker model would be the most appropriate rice value chain model in the province. Finally, considering all the four main criteria and the sub-criteria including 21 components, among the four business models in the value chain, the ‘market maker’ model with a final weight of 0.510 was the best structure for the rice value chain in the province and the ‘integrated’ model with a final weight of 0.309 was placed in the second priority; then, ‘layer player’ and ‘orchestrator’ models were placed in the third and fourth priorities with the final weights of 0.193 and 0.059, respectively.

Conclusion and Suggestions: 

The study results showed that among the four business models in the rice value chain in Guilan province, the ‘market maker’ model was ranked first as the best option with the highest relative weight (0.510) and the ‘orchestrator’ model was the least important option with a relative weight of 0.059. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to make the marketing system efficient as well as the stability of rice production and export, attention to the prioritization in the value chain should be emphasized by the planners and policy makers of the province. Therefore, the establishment of international trade center in Guilan province as well as supportive measures towards such an expertise center can help to organize the rice market in the Guilan province and consequently, in the whole country.

The challenge of economic development is to ensure human welfare. Many studies in developing countries have focused on trade liberalization to achieve this goal. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of reducing import tariffs in the agricultural sector on households’ welfare. The study utilized a computable general equilibrium model and Afghanistan's social accounting matrix data, and measured welfare effects using the Hicksian Equivalent variations index. The findings showed that as the import tariff gradually decreased until its full elimination, household expenses increased across various scenarios. The equivalent changes, which reflect the difference between primary and secondary consumption expenditures, were positive after implementing the scenarios. The study found that reducing the import tariff rate in the agricultural sector by 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 percent increased equivalent changes by 1339, 4427, 7494, 10996 and 10996 million Afg., respectively, indicating an improvement in household welfare. The fourth and fifth scenarios had a greater welfare effect than the first. Based on the study results, it is recommended that the Afghan government focus more on trade liberalization instead of reducing agricultural tariffs. The study also suggests that, along with trade liberalization, the government should shift its focus from domestic production to meeting food needs through imports to ensure household well-being.

In recent years, the non-agricultural sector has been recognized as a tool to reduce rural poverty and create employment for the rural labor. In Iran, non-agricultural activities in rural areas due to recent droughts, water resources crisis and the tendency of rural youth to non-agricultural activities has grown so much that according to the census of Population and housing in 2017, 49.7% of rural employees have been employed in the non-agricultural sector. This study investigates the factors affecting on employment of farmers in non-agricultural activities in Sabzevar city. Data were obtained of simple random available sampling method from 208 farmers in this city in the year 2021-2022 and were analyzed using the logit model.The results showed that 112 people of farmers had non-agricultural activities, of which about 19.6% had government activities, 30.4% were private, and the largest number of farmers are freely engaged in non-agricultural activities. The results of the logit model showed that factors, including the level of education and the number of members of the farmer's household, have a positive effect, and the variables of the age of the farmer, the cultivation level, the experience of agricultural activity, the diversity of agricultural activity and the amount of agricultural income have a negative effect on farmers' employment in non-agricultural activity. The government take action by raising the level of technical and skill abilities of villagers by providing technical and professional education services in accordance with the creation of entrepreneurship in rural areas at the level of schools and universities.

Designing incentive packages for the implementation of the cultivation pattern by farmers is one of the policies of the agricultural sector which plays an important role in providing food security. This study was conducted in Razavi Khorasan province as one of the hubs of producing agricultural products in Iran. To identify the required incentives and to design incentive packages, the Delphi method and the opinions of farmers and agricultural experts were used in three stages. In order to carry out this research, the opinions of 34 specialists and experts in the field of agriculture and 158 agricultural operators of the province were used to design incentive packages. According to the obtained results, three incentive packages including "pricing policy for basic agricultural products and guaranteed purchase", "management-infrastructure" and "subsidy" were designed and provided to farmers, which were chosen by 41.1, 32.9 and 26 percent of farmers, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that farmers are risk-averse and the government can take a big step in operationalizing the crop pattern by farmers with the policy of guaranteed purchase in proportion to the market balance for the stability and increase of farmers' income as well as creating balance in production and attention to the required infrastructure.

Exporting agricultural products is considered as one of the strategies for developing non-oil exports and achieving sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Saffron, as an export commodity, holds particular significance in Iran's non-oil exports. Given Iran's position among the top four saffron-exporting countries globally, this study aims to prioritize Iran's saffron target markets based on market competition indices and calculate its relative advantage and export stability index in the world market and Iran's export target countries. Comparison of the global market structure of the product during 2003 to 2022 revealed that despite the significant shares of Iran, Spain, England, and Nigeria in most years, the market structure has been characterized by a multi-sided monopoly, open and closed, and in some years dominated by oligopoly, indicating an increase in the number of competitors and the competitiveness of the export market for this product. Iran, with an average share of 13.6% in the saffron export market and producing over 80% of saffron, does not have a direct share in global exports, and most of Iran's saffron is exported to countries such as the UAE, Spain, China, and Oman, and then re-exported to other countries, for which strategies such as market expansion and branding need to be prioritized. The results showed that in 2022, four countries, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Iran, and Spain, accounted for 93% of the total world exports, and Iran ranked second in terms of export volume in the saffron export market during the study period. Also, Iran had an export stability index of less than one (0.96) but the trend of this index indicates a decrease in Iran's stability. The results showed that the majority of Iran's saffron exports are concentrated in only four countries, with the composition of these countries varying over time. To enhance market stability and growth, it is crucial to expand the target export markets. Prioritization should be given to China, UAE, Spain, India, USA, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and Kuwait, with average priority ranks of 4.15, 6.85, 7.7, 7.95, 8.9, 12.3, 14.35, 15.25, 15.5, and 16.45 respectively. Furthermore, the results indicated that the export market for saffron is oligopolistic. Therefore, it is essential for all exporting countries to collaborate in determining the price and market share for each country. This collaborative approach can help in stabilizing the market, ensuring fair pricing, and promoting sustainable growth in the saffron industry.

Factor productivity analysis is a useful management tool at any economic level, and due to the environmental effects of economic activities and costs, not paying attention to these effects in evaluating economic performance leads to results. It goes away from reality. In this regard, one of the important aspects in the issue of productivity is to study the differences in productivity of countries, analyze the trend and their convergence. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in environmental productivity growth of selected countries in the Mena region and the existence of convergence between them in the period 2009-2020 using Fare-Primont index and root test of Pesaran panel unit. According to the results of the Environmental Productivity Index, Tunisia, Yemen, Morocco, Libya, Qatar, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have grown in the study period. Comparison of the results of normal and environmental productivity index shows that in terms of unfavorable output, the productivity index of all countries studied has decreased. Based on the results, the agricultural productivity of the studied countries is convergent. Therefore, structural changes in the agriculture of the countries of the Mena region and changes in the productivity of the factors of production of each of them will affect the productivity and growth of the agricultural sector of these countries.

The agricultural products insurance is an efficient way to reduce the risk of activity in this field, which seeks to improve the economic productivity of the agricultural sector by encouraging farmers to insure their products. The success of it also depends on the farmers' willingness to produce insurance. Considering the importance of insurance in reducing risk and stabilizing the income of farmers, this research has investigated the factors affecting the decreased demand for wheat in Torbat Jam city. This research was conducted by completing questionnaire and sampling method available from 198 people from all wheat farmers of this city in the year of 2020-2021 and it was analyzed using logit model. Based on the information obtained from the Agricultural Jahad of this city, 72 of the farmers in the sample have taken out insurance for the wheat. The results of the showed that factors including the level of education, the area under cultivation of wheat, the years of history of the farmer facing the risk, the timely payment of compensation by the agricultural products insurance fund and the completeness of the level of coverage have a negative effect, and on the other hand, the variables of the amount of income from the sale of wheat, having sources of income other and the distance to the insurance office from the farmers' residence have a positive effect on not applying for insurance by the wheat farmers of this city. it is appropriate to the classification of agricultural risks according to regions.

Having a plan of crop pattern suitable to climatic conditions ensures the sustainability of agricultural production and food security and makes the capacities of each region be used properly, this possibility can be investigated and implemented in the form of policy packages and by designing targeted incentive packages and According to the needs of the farmers and then providing the packages to the farmers, they will stimulate the farmers to implement the cultivation pattern, which can play an effective role in the operationalization of the cultivation pattern in the fields by the farmers. The purpose of this study is Investigating the influencing factors on the willingness of farmers to accept incentive packages for operationalizing the crop pattern proposed by the government in Khorasan Razavi province.In this study, 283 farmers were selected using the available non-random sampling method, and the necessary data and information were collected using a questionnaire and face-to-face interview. Also, using multinomial logit regression, the purpose of the study was examined.The results of the research showed that the variables of The number of household labour, market risk, financial risk, attitude, perceived behavioral control and membership in social institutions have a positive and significant effect on the selection of the management-infrastructure package and the variables of Amount of non-agricultural income, medium-scale farmers, subjective norms, financing willingness, marital status and Enough access to Water have a negative and significant effect. Also, variables of place of residence, The number of household labour, participation and cooperation with agricultural jihad, attitude, perceived behavioral control, cultural factors and membership in social institutions have a positive and significant effect and variables of large-scale farmers, weather risk, subjective norms, behavioral intention, satisfaction with The policy and objectives of the agricultural jihad and the activity and participation in the farmers' group have a negative and significant effect on the choice of a subsidy package.

Unlimited use of limited quality Municipal effluent on the farm endangers the health of farmers and consumers of Products irrigated with Municipal effluent. Pollution will be minimized if farmers implement parameters related to the safe use of Municipal effluent, such as the cultivation pattern appropriate to the quality of the effluent, the use of appropriate irrigation methods and the distance between the last irrigation and the effluent to harvest. Therefore, the main idea of this study is to determine the factors affecting the safe use of Municipal effluent on the farm by Iranian farmers. In this regard, the broad theory of planned behavior (TPB) with the addition of risk perception (RP) and knowledge (Kn) as the theoretical framework of the study has been used. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis showed that three sub-components of the main TPB model namely Attitude (Att), Mental Norm (SN) and Perceived Behavior Control (PBC) were statistically significant positive relationships with farmers' Intention of farmers to participate in the safe use of Municipal effluent. In addition, after including the two variables of perception of risk and knowledge as predictors of intent in the developed model of the theory of planned behavior, the predictive power of the model increased. Also, the most important variable in the main TPB model was perceived behavior control, but in the developed TPB model, knowledge was the most important. Therefore, policymakers can promote safe behaviors in the use of Municipal effluent on the farm by emphasizing farmers' knowledge.

Social risks are another specific phenomenon in the agricultural sector. . In the present study, in order to identify ethical risks and adverse selection in Khorasan Razavi irrigated wheat insurance, a simultaneous equation system model . The sample size was determined by proportional sampling Collected. The results indicate that insured farming in warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions have not reduced inputs for production per unit area of wheat, indicating a lack of ethical risk in these areas. In contrast, the results from the cold zone show that the insured beneficiaries has reduced the consumption of inputs in the area, indicating a moral hazard in this area. Also, the results of the test of the hypothesis of constant returns to scale versus the decreasing or increasing return hypothesis for variable inputs show the absence of adverse selection. Therefore, it is suggested that appropriate training and extension classes be held for farmers in order to better understand the time and manner of using chemical fertilizers and the appropriate time for irrigation.

In Bushehr province finishing and becoming salty of groundwaters in some fields like Dayer, Kangan, Jam, Assaluyeh make alarm as an active for water lack in other fields of Bushehr province. This study considers the objectives of achieving the maximum economic gross margin, the minimum underground water draft as well as the reduced greenhouse gas emissions, then, attempts to determine optimal cropping pattern for farmers in Jam County. The data for the study were obtained following the completion of questionnaires 60 farmers in Jam County in the years 2017 and 2018. In this regard, a Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming Model was applied. The results illustrated that in the homogeneous group of farmers with more than 3 hectares, growing of such crops as wheat, tomato, cucumber, onion was decreased, the production of barely, aubergine was increased, water intake from ground fields 35%, emission of greenhouse gases 25% was decreased. However, government may consider some facilities for other cost making farmer’s activities providing stability, sustainability for coinciding this type of patterns for farming of mentioned region.

Medicinal plants are consumed in the form of dried or canned or fresh plants or processed by heating or extraction of effective substances in the industry. "Cumin" can be used for medicinal, edible and beauty purposes in various forms such as fruit, Cumin powder, Distillate, oil and essential oil.

In this research, we used the data collected by collecting 270 questionnaire in 2019 and using the multinomial logit model, to investigate the factors that influence on the selection of Cumin derivatives' consumption in Mashhad.

Results showed that the variables of education, employment, income, illness, consumption experience, knowledge of the price and properties of Medicinal Plants, the preferences of Medicinal medicines than chemical medicines, packing and Prices affect the selection of different Cumin's derivatives.

Therefore, it is suggested that marketing for Cumin derivatives be based on the preferences and characteristics of the consumers in each market. It also promote consumption and increase medicinal plants' use in the community by increasing individuals' awareness, providing counseling services through centers, traditional medicine physicians, and also the expansion of the use of information resources in the field of medicinal plants, especially Cumin. Also, by improving the quality of packaging, it increased the willingness of people to use medicinal plants' products.

The research aim is to study the yield including irrigated and dry-farmed wheat, barley, and corn in the climate and sub-climates of the country. So, the average yield of the studied products, average rainfall, and average temperature data have been used for the climatic change from the period 1982-2015. Due to the fact that cereal products over 56% and 77% of the cultivated area in arid and semi-arid regions, respectively. Therefore, in this study, only cereal are studied and among all of the crops, they have been selected, the five crops that have the highest area under cultivation. Finally, the function of various crops’ demands was used to investigate the effects of climate change on crops.The results show that the highest yield coefficients of rainfall are to precipitation in cold and sub-climates semi-arid cold, semi-arid hot, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, irrigated wheat, dryland wheat, dryland barley, dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. In addition, the highest coefficients of function of demands to temperature in cold and sub-climates of semi-arid cold, semi-arid warm, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, dryland barley, irrigated wheat and dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. According to the results of the research and in order to efficiently manage production and better performance, agricultural products in climates and sub-climates in the country are recommended. Compilation of a comprehensive cultivation model and allocation of the type of crop cultivation in the climate and sub-climate should be done by considering the reaction rate of the yield of the products and the exploitation of most of the mentioned products.

International trade theories have highlighted the importance of specialization of countries to benefit from the global trade network. In addition to foreign currency earnings, the development agricultural exports can play an important role in ensuring food security and improving the level of resilience of agricultural sector in Iran. One of the approaches to analyze export development process is to study export possibilities from the perspective of comparative export advantage and specializing in the framework of advantage dynamics. So the present study seeks to explore the following research question: has the exports of selected Iranian agricultural products (pistachio, saffron, dates, raisin, apple, cucumber and kiwi) has moved towards specialization in the global market? To achieve this goal, we assess the specialization pattern of Iran over the period 2001 to 2017. Findings reveal that all the selected products had a comparative export advantage during the selected period, but none of them has moved towards specialization. In other words, despite having the export comparative advantage, Iran has not have long-term plans to promote exports of selected products in the global market. The analysis in the form of panel data during the two periods of 2001-2009 and 2010-2017 also indicates that the export of selected products do not support dynamism and specialization over time. Regarding the export capacities of Iran's agricultural sector, it is recommended to enter into long-term contracts in the target markets in order to increase the export share of selected products through adaptation and implementation of continuous production and export policies.

Due to the importantance of sugar in daily consumption of Iranian households, governments annually store sugar as a strategic reserve. Therefore, managing and timing adjustment for the inventory of this product is essential in its ability to compete in markets, modifying the temporal and spatial distribution of products and inputs in economic subdivisions. In recent years, at national scale there was extra sugar in warehouses and a few cases of shortages in stock were exception. Higher sugar production along with lower sale, will increase the costs, so the aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting sugar surplus and its export in Iran data time searies 1991-2017. In this study our results showed that sugar beet and sugar price as product price did not play a decisive role in stock surplus. Therefore, the stock surplus can neither be the result of price policies nor it be resolved through price policies. It seems that the government should adopt other policies, such as adjusting the timing of import decisions, resolving conflicts between government objectives, and providing strategic reserves from domestic products and gradual elimination of imports, support factories for improving and upgrading equipment, and help sugar beet producers to achieve cheaper product rather than using price policies related to sugar and sugar beet prices.

What torments Iran’s Agricultural Sector is the mere technocratism aspect with no regard to the other dimensions of development. Technocrats with their single and limited dimension just are in favor of technology application and its advantages regardless of the actual problems often these technologies create in the sector as well as in the society. Agricultural extension and education, the twin complementary educational sub-sector, the only dual dimension expertise in human resource development that from one hand use information communication technology and in the other hand understanding, applying and disseminating production technologies , are acting as the agricultural development vehicle. This qualitative investigation was after the status quo search of agricultural extension and education eco-compatible technologies in Iran using focus group methodology and applying documentary longitudinal descriptive analytical technique. Findings discussed, purified, combined and analyzed in the focus group (the Agricultural Economic and Extension Education Branch of the Iran Academy of Sciences) in terms of specialized, advance agricultural extension and education eco-compatible technologies. Findings reviled at least 18 agricultural extension technology or module, among them Internet of Things (IoT), which is applicable only when precise agriculture and low impute agricultural modules are mass developed and applied.

The agricultural sector and its related activities have certain characteristics, which expose it to numerous unforeseen risks and damages, resulting in multiple losses and problems. Therefore, identifying and evaluating these risks and damages can help farmers make the right decisions. The purpose of the present study is to identify and evaluate melon crop production risks, and to prepare risk profiles for this crop.

Two criteria of frequency of occurrence and extent of risk, and finally risk matrix were used to assess the damage of each production risks. The sample size was determined based on simple random sampling procedure and the data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 50 melon farmers in Mashhad in 2019.

Study findings suggest that the largest risk area in terms of risk frequency and risk effect is assigned to the fifth area including drought risk, pests, various illnesses, birds and melon fly, following by the first area with 4 risks and the second and third areas with 1 risk.

We highly recommend the use of risk profiles to design patterns and insurance coverage which fits various risks. As a result, losses of insurance fund will mitigate and major and important risks in melon production will be covered, and thus, insurance demand will increase.

One of the main activities of banks is the allocation of resources, one of the main aspects of which is determining the optimal combination of credits to various economic sectors. Lack of attention to the allocation of financial resources available to the bank, can cause serious damage to the entire economic system. In this study with the purpose of determining the optimal portfolio of the bank, each of the different activities of the creditor was considered as an asset. Given that the fluctuations in the ratio of lending credits collection are the main source of expected bank earnings fluctuations, so the amount of lending credits of each economic activity, which need to be collected are considered as return standard of, and its variance is consider as a risk. Also, in order to determine the range of expected return on assets, the historical average on each asset is calculated. Considering the necessity of reviewing this issue, in this paper, a multi-objective non-linear programming model using the firefly algorithm has been used to determine the optimal portfolio of agricultural bank credits. The main features of this research are the consideration of three optimistic pessimistic and hybrid strategies under different economic conditions. The results showed that the optimal pattern obtained from the firefly algorithm differs from the current model of distribution of bank credits.The present findings can provide managers with a roadmap for choosing the optimal portfolio consistent with the bank's preferences according to different estimates of return and risk, thus leading to the proper management of loans

Lack of access to adequate energy and the prevalence of undernourishment are of the most important issues in the developing world due to their impacts on public health and individual’s physical and mental abilities in society. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the impacts of drought, food production diversity and different household characteristics on the prevalence of undernourishment in rural areas of Iran. For this purpose, panel quantile regression was considered as the best technique to estimate the impacts of social and economic indicators on the prevalence of undernourishment during the period of 2012-2016. The main results indicated that among the household characteristics, increase in household income, share of food in household expenditure and age of household head and among the environmental indicators, increase in food production diversity would prevent the prevalence of undernourishment in studied rural households; on the other hand, increase in household size, education expenditure, drought severity, and food price indexes would increase the prevalence of undernourishment. Based on these results, non-agricultural income tax exemptions in the rural areas and redistribution of current subsidies by focusing on highly malnourished areas as well as focusing on large rural households, providing policies that reduce the impacts of drought on food production and ultimately, promoting the strategies that allow for increased diversification of food production at the household level could be suggested to prevent further malnutrition in the rural areas.

Water insecurity is a growing concern worldwide, especially for developing countries, where a wide range of activities, including agriculture, depend on water supply systems. Iran is no exception. For example, the increasing use of surface and groundwater resources in the Mashhad plain as a result of the development of agriculture and related industries in this plain has led to an intensification of the declining trend of its aquifer level. Therefore, the resilience of Mashhad plain is very important in reducing groundwater resources. In this research, it has been tried to analyze the priority of these variables after determining the basic variables affecting the model, according to the opinion of experts and using the two best-worst business methods and the process of hierarchical analysis. In the future, knowledge will define the basic strategies for increasing the resilience of these resources in this plain. According to the literature review, this research is the first attempt to apply the best-worst business method in this field of research. The results of this study showed that the discharge rate of groundwater in agriculture with a final weight of 0.18103 in the BWM section and 0.21216 in the AHP section, respectively, the existing agricultural groundwater resources with a final weight of 0.0444 in the BWM section and 0.174165 in the AHP section, the amount of surface and groundwater losses in the agricultural sector with a final weight of 0.10248 in the BWM section and 0.884 in the AHP section, with different order in the two methods, are of the highest importance.